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交投3月非农尤为困难?金融市场大行情一触即发!

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 11:04:40
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(原)(标)(题)(:交)(投)(3月)(非)(农)(尤)(为)(困)(难)(?金)(融)(市)(场)(大)(行)(情)(一)(触)(即)(发)(!
FX168财)(经)(报)(社)((香)(港)()讯)(尽)(管)(美)(国)(的)(数)(据)(表)(现)(疲)(弱)(,但)(美)(元)(兑)(所)(有)(主)(要)(货)(币)(的)(汇)(率)(都)(在)(上)(涨)(。唯)(一)(重)(要)(的)(是)(股)(市)(在)(昨)(日)(的)(戏)(剧)(性)(逆)(转)(之)(后)(扩)(大)(了)(涨)(幅)(。美)(元)(/日)(元)(周)(四)((4月)(5日)()触)(及)(1个)(月)(新)(高)(,目)(前)(正)(盯)(着)(108关)(口)(。BK资)(产)(管)(理)(董)(事)(总)(经)(理)(KathyLien撰)(文)(指)(出)(,尽)(管)(在)(亚)(洲)(或)(欧)(洲)(的)(交)(易)(时)(段)(该)(货)(币)(对)(可)(能)(会)(接)(近)(这)(一)(水)(平)(,但)(在)(周)(五)(的)(非)(农)(就)(业)(报)(告)(公)(布)(之)(前)(,汇)(价)(不)(太)(可)(能)(打)(破)(这)(一)(水)(平)(。在)(3月)(份)(刚)(刚)(加)(息)(之)(后)(,这)(份)(即)(将)(出)(炉)(的)(就)(业)(报)(告)(不)(会)(对)(美)(联)(储)(的)(政)(策)(产)(生)(立)(竿)(见)(影)(的)(影)(响)(,因)(为)(投)(资)(者)(最)(早)(要)(到)(6月)(才)(会)(再)(次)(加)(息)(。然)(而)(,非)(农)(就)(业)(人)(数)(一)(直)(是)(一)(个)(重)(要)(的)(数)(据)(,而)(较)(前)(一)(个)(月)(的)(预)(期)(变)(化)(相)(当)(大)(,以)(至)(于)(在)(一)(个)(方)(向)(或)(另)(一)(个)(方)(向)(上)(的)(意)(外)(都)(将)(是)(确)(定)(无)(疑)(的)(。经)(济)(学)(家)(们)(正)(在)(寻)(找)(就)(业)(增)(长)(大)(幅)(放)(缓)(的)(趋)(势)(,这)(将)(对)(美)(元)(不)(利)(,但)(他)(们)(也)(预)(计)(失)(业)(率)(将)(有)(所)(改)(善)(,平)(均)(时)(薪)(增)(长)(将)(更)(为)(强)(劲)(。上)(个)(月)(的)(非)(农)(就)(业)(人)(数)(超)(出)(了)(预)(期)(10多)(万)(,因)(此)(修)(订)(也)(成)(为)(焦)(点)(。
看)(看)(最)(近)(的)(其)(他)(数)(据)(,有)(更)(多)(的)(理)(由)(支)(持)(一)(份)(温)(和)(而)(不)(是)(更)(强)(劲)(的)(就)(业)(报)(告)(,但)(随)(着)(3月)(份)(非)(制)(造)(业)(活)(动)(的)(就)(业)(分)(项)(指)(数)(上)(升)(,如)(果)(之)(前)(的)(就)(业)(增)(长)(被)(下)(调)(,整)(体)(数)(据)(可)(能)(会)(符)(合)(预)(期)(。
支)(持)(非)(农)(表)(现)(强)(劲)(的)(理)(由)(:
1)ISM非)(制)(造)(业)(活)(动)(就)(业)(分)(项)(指)(数)(上)(升)(
2)密)(西)(根)(大)(学)(信)(心)(指)(数)(上)(升)(
3)续)(请)(失)(业)(金)(人)(数)(降)(至)(40年)(低)(位)(
支)(持)(非)(农)(表)(现)(疲)(弱)(的)(理)(由)(:
1)ISM制)(造)(业)(就)(业)(分)(项)(下)(滑)(
2)ADP就)(业)(人)(数)(小)(幅)(增)(加)(
3)四)(周)(失)(业)(金)(人)(数)(均)(值)(增)(至)(22.8万)(
4)咨)(商)(会)(消)(费)(者)(信)(心)(指)(数)(下)(滑)(
5)挑)(战)(者)(裁)(员)(人)(数)(增)(加)(39.4%
考)(虑)(到)(这)(一)(点)(,我)(们)(在)(明)(天)(的)(劳)(动)(报)(告)(中)(将)(关)(注)(5个)(重)(点)(:
1)非)(农)(就)(业)(人)(数)(增)(长)(
2)对)(上)(个)(月)(报)(告)(的)(修)(订)(
3)失)(业)(率)(的)(变)(化)(
4)平)(均)(时)(薪)(增)(长)(
5)参)(与)(率)(
考)(虑)(到)(美)(元)(近)(期)(的)(强)(势)(,投)(资)(者)(正)(准)(备)(迎)(接)(更)(强)(劲)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(数)(据)(,但)(也)(有)(让)(人)(感)(到)(下)(行)(意)(外)(的)(足)(够)(空)(间)((工)(资)(增)(长)(和)(失)(业)(率)(方)(面)(),这)(使)(得)(本)(月)(的)(非)(农)(交)(易)(尤)(其)(困)(难)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(市)(场)(料)(将)(做)(出)(大)(的)(反)(应)(,这)(取)(决)(于)(意)(外)(的)(方)(向)(。如)(果)(就)(业)(人)(数)(超)(过)(20万)(,工)(资)(增)(长)(0.3%,失)(业)(率)(将)(如)(预)(期)(下)(降)(,美)(元)(/日)(元)(将)(轻)(松)(突)(破)(108。然)(而)(,如)(果)(工)(资)(仅)(上)(涨)(0.2%,失)(业)(率)(保)(持)(稳)(定)(,就)(业)(人)(数)(为)(20万)(或)(更)(少)(,那)(么)(我)(们)(应)(该)(会)(看)(到)(美)(元)(/日)(元)(跌)(至)(106.80以)(下)(。
加)(拿)(大)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(报)(告)(也)(将)(于)(周)(五)(公)(布)(,加)(拿)(大)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(报)(告)(将)(与)(非)(农)(同)(时)(发)(布)(。数)(据)(公)(布)(之)(前)(,美)(元)(/加)(元)(走)(低)(,因)(投)(资)(者)(希)(望)(全)(职)(就)(业)(人)(数)(出)(现)(反)(弹)(,这)(将)(推)(动)(净)(变)(化)(进)(一)(步)(上)(升)(。尽)(管)(加)(拿)(大)(的)(贸)(易)(逆)(差)(幅)(幅)(超)(过)(预)(期)(,但)(随)(着)(投)(资)(者)(期)(待)(北)(美)(自)(由)(贸)(易)(协)(定)(的)(达)(成)(,加)(元)(对)(多)(数)(主)(要)(货)(币)(都)(走)(高)(。根)(据)(特)(鲁)(多)(总)(理)(的)(说)(法)(,北)(美)(自)(由)(贸)(易)(协)(定)(谈)(判)(正)(在)(以)(一)(种)(重)(要)(的)(方)(式)(向)(前)(推)(进)(,有)(传)(言)(称)(,下)(周)(在)(秘)(鲁)(举)(行)(的)(地)(区)(峰)(会)(上)(可)(能)(会)(宣)(布)(一)(项)(协)(议)(。澳)(元)(和)(纽)(元)(则)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(,尽)(管)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(的)(经)(济)(报)(告)(更)(加)(强)(劲)(。贸)(易)(平)(衡)(和)(服)(务)(业)(活)(动)(都)(有)(所)(改)(善)(,但)(唯)(一)(重)(要)(的)(是)(美)(元)(的)(复)(苏)(。在)(这)(一)(点)(上)(,澳)(元)(/美)(元)(和)(纽)(元)(/美)(元)(的)(交)(易)(将)(取)(决)(于)(非)(农)(报)(告)(。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,欧)(元)(和)(英)(镑)(的)(抛)(售)(得)(到)(了)(数)(据)(的)(支)(持)(。今)(年)(2月)(,德)(国)(工)(厂)(订)(单)(和)(欧)(元)(区)(零)(售)(销)(售)(增)(长)(低)(于)(预)(期)(。尽)(管)(生)(产)(者)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(,但)(这)(一)(上)(升)(被)(其)(他)(数)(据)(和)(对)(欧)(元)(区)(PMI的)(向)(下)(修)(正)(所)(抵)(消)(。目)(前)(表)(现)(最)(差)(的)(货)(币)(是)(英)(镑)(,考)(虑)(到)(服)(务)(业)(活)(动)(与)(制)(造)(业)(和)(建)(筑)(业)(一)(起)(放)(缓)(,这)(并)(不)(令)(人)(意)(外)(。3月)(份)(英)(国)(三)(大)(PMI报)(告)(均)(有)(所)(下)(降)(,而)(这)(些)(下)(降)(则)(使)(英)(镑)(/美)(元)(跌)(至)(1.40以)(下)(。如)(果)(美)(元)(在)(更)(强)(劲)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(报)(告)(的)(支)(持)(下)(上)(涨)(,那)(么)(英)(镑)(/美)(元)(可)(能)(会)(将)(下)(滑)(幅)(度)(扩)(大)(至)(1.39。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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