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:"类滞胀"风险与投资策略

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 10:38:34
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(2008年)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(以)(来)(,信)(贷)(扩)(张)(是)(中)(国)(经)(济)(快)(速)(增)(长)(的)(主)(要)(推)(动)(力)(量)(之)(一)(。正)(常)(情)(况)(下)(,单)(位)(信)(贷)(投)(入)(与)(GDP产)(出)(的)(比)(例)(应)(该)(相)(对)(稳)(定)(。根)(据)(国)(际)(清)(算)(银)(行)(的)(估)(计)(,中)(国)(非)(金)(融)(部)(门)(债)(务)(占)(GDP的)(比)(重)(,已)(经)(从)(全)(球)(金)(融)(危)(机)(之)(前)(2007年)(的)(144.9%快)(速)(上)(升)(到)(2017年)(的)(255.7%,十)(年)(升)(幅)(近)(111个)(百)(分)(点)((图)(表)(3)。同)(期)(,G20平)(均)(水)(平)(从)(181.4%增)(加)(到)(220%,上)(升)(不)(到)(30个)(百)(分)(点)(,幅)(度)(明)(显)(小)(于)(中)(国)(。
过)(去)(十)(年)(,扩)(张)(性)(政)(策)(与)(收)(缩)(性)(政)(策)(交)(替)(使)(用)(,不)(少)(时)(候)(并)(行)(使)(用)(。货)(币)(政)(策)(财)(政)(政)(策)(双)(扩)(张)(,也)(带)(来)(了)(一)(系)(列)(的)(副)(作)(用)(,如)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(扩)(大)(、产)(能)(过)(剩)(严)(重)(,整)(个)(经)(济)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(过)(高)(等)(。为)(了)(避)(免)(或)(减)(轻)(这)(些)(副)(作)(用)(,中)(国)(政)(府)(采)(取)(了)(很)(多)(措)(施)(,在)(稳)(增)(长)(和)(防)(泡)(沫)(之)(间)(寻)(求)(平)(衡)(,其)(中)(有)(不)(少)(措)(施)(从)(供)(给)(侧)(发)(力)(的)(。
其)(一)(,限)(价)(、限)(售)(。这)(一)(轮)(房)(地)(产)(紧)(缩)(措)(施)(始)(于)(2016年)(9月)(底)(,为)(历)(来)(最)(严)(厉)(的)(政)(策)(收)(紧)(和)(行)(政)(干)(预)(。2016年)(9月)(30日)(,北)(京)(和)(天)(津)(率)(先)(启)(动)(政)(策)(调)(控)(,以)(限)(购)(限)(贷)(为)(主)(基)(调)(。在)(此)(基)(础)(上)(,逐)(步)(发)(展)(到)(限)(价)(和)(限)(售)(,对)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(已)(经)(产)(生)(了)(明)(显)(冲)(击)(。这)(一)(轮)(政)(策)(干)(预)(的)(结)(果)(,是)(在)(保)(持)(购)(地)(投)(资)(相)(对)(高)(增)(长)(的)(前)(提)(下)(,建)(筑)(安)(装)(投)(资)(增)(速)(仍)(呈)(周)(期)(性)(波)(动)(,但)(下)(降)(趋)(势)(明)(显)(。今)(年)(以)(来)(,除)(了)(3月)(份)(录)(得)(0.3%的)(正)(增)(长)(外)(,其)(余)(月)(份)(都)(为)(负)(增)(长)(,6月)(更)(是)(录)(得)(-7.3%的)(同)(比)(增)(长)((图)(表)(4)。
其)(二)(,限)(产)(。为)(了)(缓)(解)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(矛)(盾)(,中)(国)(出)(台)(和)(实)(施)(了)(历)(史)(上)(最)(严)(格)(的)(环)(保)(政)(策)(和)(标)(准)(。2016年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(,多)(层)(级)(的)(环)(保)(督)(察)(在)(全)(国)(展)(开)(,包)(括)(中)(央)(环)(保)(督)(察)(、环)(保)(部)(的)(多)(次)(专)(项)(督)(察)(、强)(化)(督)(察)(,以)(及)(力)(度)(大)(幅)(提)(升)(的)(常)(规)(督)(察)(。为)(落)(实)(去)(产)(能)(目)(标)(、推)(动)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(,环)(境)(和)(能)(耗)(标)(准)(成)(为)(去)(产)(能)(的)(重)(要)(标)(准)(。环)(保)(去)(产)(能)(效)(果)(明)(显)(,自)(2016年)(以)(来)(,污)(染)(较)(重)(的)(上)(游)(行)(业)(的)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(开)(始)(出)(现)(负)(增)(长)(,这)(一)(局)(面)(至)(今)(未)(有)(改)(善)((图)(表)(5)。
其)(三)(,限)(杠)(杆)(。金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(,对)(部)(分)(企)(业)(产)(生)(了)(明)(显)(的)(信)(贷)(约)(束)(。2016年)(四)(季)(度)(开)(始)(,央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(逐)(渐)(收)(紧)(,开)(启)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(。2016年)(底)(央)(行)(将)(表)(外)(理)(财)(纳)(入)(广)(义)(信)(贷)(考)(核)(后)(,中)(小)(银)(行)(表)(外)(规)(模)(扩)(张)(得)(到)(了)(遏)(制)(。2017年)(4月)(初)(银)(监)(会)(启)(动)(监)(管)(风)(暴)(,覆)(盖)(票)(据)(、理)(财)(、同)(业)(、对)(公)(等)(主)(流)(交)(易)(产)(品)(。2017年)(11月)(出)(台)(的)(资)(管)(新)(规)(征)(求)(意)(见)(稿)(拉)(开)(了)(最)(新)(一)(轮)(监)(管)(的)(序)(幕)(,直)(击)(监)(管)(套)(利)(和)(刚)(性)(兑)(付)(等)(弊)(端)(。使)(得)(单)(位)(新)(增)(GDP所)(需)(新)(增)(社)(会)(融)(资)(总)(额)(逐)(步)(下)(降)((图)(表)(6)。金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(长)(期)(而)(言)(非)(常)(必)(要)(,但)(对)(短)(期)(投)(资)(将)(产)(生)(重)(要)(影)(响)(,一)(个)(结)(果)(是)(,金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(之)(下)(,非)(国)(有)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(持)(续)(放)(慢)((图)(表)(7)。
其)(四)(,限)(贸)(易)(。中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(,或)(导)(致)(进)(口)(领)(域)(通)(胀)(,出)(口)(领)(域)(通)(缩)(。与)(以)(往)(的)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(不)(同)(,今)(年)(3月)(开)(启)(的)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(发)(生)(在)(世)(界)(最)(大)(的)(两)(个)(经)(济)(体)(之)(间)(,贸)(易)(战)(只)(是)(一)(个)(开)(始)(,很)(可)(能)(会)(进)(一)(步)(向)(科)(技)(和)(金)(融)(领)(域)(延)(伸)(。中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(这)(将)(对)(全)(球)(产)(业)(链)(产)(生)(重)(大)(影)(响)(,将)(影)(响)(到)(未)(来)(全)(球)(制)(造)(业)(的)(格)(局)(。相)(对)(而)(言)(,中)(国)(出)(口)(以)(消)(费)(品)(为)(主)(,处)(在)(产)(业)(链)(的)(低)(端)(,而)(进)(口)(以)(生)(产)(要)(素)(为)(主)(,对)(产)(业)(链)(的)(上)(端)(依)(赖)(明)(显)(。中)(国)(会)(积)(极)(寻)(求)(进)(口)(替)(代)(,但)(部)(分)(原)(材)(料)(成)(本)(上)(升)(或)(难)(以)(完)(全)(避)(免)(。如)(果)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(升)(级)(,未)(来)(中)(国)(进)(口)(价)(格)(指)(数)(可)(能)(上)(扬)(,而)(出)(口)(价)(格)(指)(数)(承)(压)((图)(表)(8)。
目)(前)(中)(国)(供)(给)(侧)(面)(临)(的)(限)(制)(性)(因)(素)(中)(,部)(分)(是)(国)(内)(政)(策)(所)(致)(,部)(分)(是)(外)(加)(的)(,但)(涉)(及)(生)(产)(面)(之)(广)(为)(过)(去)(四)(十)(年)(首)(次)(。这)(些)(因)(素)(在)(限)(制)(或)(冲)(击)(供)(给)(侧)(的)(同)(时)(,推)(升)(了)(通)(胀)(预)(期)(。中)(国)(政)(府)(不)(会)(容)(忍)(高)(通)(胀)(的)(发)(生)(,很)(可)(能)(会)(采)(取)(更)(多)(的)(政)(策)(管)(制)(措)(施)(,但)(过)(多)(和)(过)(长)(时)(间)(的)(管)(制)(会)(导)(致)(资)(源)(配)(置)(效)(率)(下)(降)(,在)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(消)(除)(之)(前)(,经)(济)(类)(滞)(胀)(的)(风)(险)(上)(升)(。
二)(、类)(滞)(胀)(的)(长)(期)(性)(与)(刺)(激)(的)(极)(限)(
从)(成)(因)(看)(,类)(滞)(胀)(风)(险)(有)(长)(期)(性)(。类)(滞)(胀)(是)(一)(种)(增)(长)(方)(式)(的)(偏)(离)(,而)(纠)(正)(这)(种)(偏)(离)(需)(要)(时)(间)(。这)(正)(是)(为)(什)(么)(十)(九)(大)(提)(出)(,要)(将)(中)(国)(经)(济)(从)(高)(速)(增)(长)(向)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(转)(变)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(,需)(要)(再)(造)(和)(升)(级)(现)(有)(的)(增)(长)(方)(式)(。然)(而)(,从)(数)(量)(到)(质)(量)(的)(转)(变)(,需)(要)(政)(策)(框)(架)(的)(重)(大)(变)(革)(,放)(弃)(扩)(张)(性)(的)(增)(长)(方)(式)(,放)(弃)(或)(减)(少)(对)(供)(给)(侧)(的)(限)(制)(,这)(很)(可)(能)(是)(一)(个)(比)(较)(长)(期)(的)(过)(程)(。
首)(先)(,房)(地)(产)(刚)(性)(泡)(沫)(难)(以)(打)(破)(,供)(给)(侧)(的)(政)(策)(干)(预)(将)(持)(续)(。短)(期)(来)(看)(,房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(存)(在)(着)(刚)(性)(泡)(沫)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(,房)(价)(不)(能)(上)(涨)(但)(更)(不)(下)(跌)(,以)(此)(为)(基)(础)(的)(政)(策)(干)(预)((包)(括)(限)(价)(、限)(售)(和)(土)(地)(入)(市)(限)(制)(等)()短)(期)(内)(难)(以)(消)(除)(。为)(了)(实)(现)(这)(样)(一)(个)(难)(涨)(更)(难)(跌)(的)(紧)(平)(衡)(,唯)(一)(的)(良)(药)(是)(时)(间)(,希)(望)(通)(过)(时)(间)(换)(空)(间)(,来)(化)(解)(泡)(沫)(风)(险)(。然)(而)(,如)(果)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(空)(间)(受)(到)(限)(制)(,房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(放)(慢)(不)(可)(避)(免)(,为)(稳)(增)(长)(计)(,未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(还)(有)(放)(松)(的)(可)(能)(,至)(少)(市)(场)(存)(在)(着)(这)(样)(的)(预)(期)(,这)(也)(是)(为)(什)(么)(历)(史)(上)(政)(策)(越)(调)(控)(、房)(价)(越)(高)(。更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(,如)(果)(供)(给)(侧)(的)(限)(制)(是)(闸)(门)(,需)(求)(却)(似)(流)(水)(。以)(“限)(”为)(核)(心)(的)(政)(策)(,已)(经)(带)(来)(部)(分)(地)(区)(房)(租)(上)(升)(,助)(推)(类)(滞)(胀)(。
其)(次)(,供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(,需)(要)(从)(“限)(产)(”转)(向)(改)(革)(。供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(非)(常)(有)(必)(要)(,需)(要)(从)(治)(理)(结)(构)(入)(手)(,提)(高)(企)(业)(的)(创)(新)(能)(力)(和)(资)(源)(配)(置)(效)(率)(,而)(“一)(刀)(切)(”式)(的)(限)(产)(在)(去)(除)(产)(能)(的)(同)(时)(减)(少)(竞)(争)(,带)(来)(的)(是)(产)(出)(价)(格)(的)(提)(高)(。从)(限)(产)(到)(放)(松)(管)(制)(转)(变)(,就)(是)(要)(明)(确)(界)(定)(政)(府)(与)(市)(场)(的)(关)(系)(,积)(极)(推)(动)(国)(企)(改)(革)(、税)(费)(改)(革)(、金)(融)(市)(场)(改)(革)(等)(。
第)(三)(,以)(遏)(制)(中)(国)(崛)(起)(为)(目)(的)(的)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(,在)(决)(出)(胜)(负)(之)(前)(,很)(可)(能)(会)(长)(期)(存)(在)(。一)(般)(认)(为)(,贸)(易)(战)(没)(有)(赢)(家)(,但)(例)(外)(是)(,当)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(甚)(至)(贸)(易)(战)(发)(生)(在)(世)(界)(第)(一)(与)(第)(二)(大)(经)(济)(体)(之)(间)(的)(时)(候)(,分)(出)(胜)(负)(只)(是)(一)(个)(时)(间)(问)(题)(。在)(未)(来)(十)(年)(左)(右)(的)(时)(间)(里)(,或)(者)(美)(国)(成)(功)(地)(遏)(制)(了)(中)(国)(的)(崛)(起)(,或)(者)(中)(国)(反)(遏)(制)(成)(功)(并)(成)(为)(世)(界)(最)(大)(的)(经)(济)(体)(。在)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(的)(大)(背)(景)(下)(,“进)(口)(替)(代)(”将)(成)(为)(中)(国)(制)(造)(业)(升)(级)(一)(大)(瓶)(颈)(。
需)(要)(指)(出)(的)(是)(,为)(避)(免)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(大)(幅)(度)(波)(动)(,适)(当)(的)(稳)(增)(长)(措)(施)(是)(需)(要)(的)(,但)(稳)(增)(长)(是)(有)(代)(价)(的)(,稳)(增)(长)(政)(策)(持)(续)(时)(间)(越)(长)(,代)(价)(越)(大)(。更)(为)(重)(要)(的)(,在)(供)(给)(限)(制)(的)(前)(提)(下)(,推)(动)(新)(一)(轮)(的)(稳)(增)(长)(措)(施)(,有)(可)(能)(加)(剧)(“扩)(张)(性)(”与)(“收)(缩)(性)(”政)(策)(的)(冲)(突)(,使)(得)(类)(滞)(胀)(成)(为)(现)(实)(。
类)(滞)(胀)(风)(险)(,特)(别)(是)(类)(滞)(胀)(风)(险)(的)(长)(期)(性)(,预)(示)(着)(政)(策)(刺)(激)(的)(极)(限)(,未)(来)(刺)(激)(的)(边)(际)(效)(果)(将)(持)(续)(下)(降)(。今)(年)(下)(半)(年)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(面)(临)(不)(小)(的)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,中)(国)(政)(府)(已)(经)(出)(台)(了)(一)(系)(列)(稳)(增)(长)(的)(措)(施)(,包)(括)(鼓)(励)(信)(贷)(扩)(张)(、支)(持)(地)(方)(政)(府)(发)(债)(以)(推)(动)(基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(。但)(是)(,以)(下)(三)(个)(因)(素)(影)(响)(会)(直)(接)(影)(响)(政)(策)(放)(松)(的)(边)(际)(效)(果)(:
第)(一)(,类)(滞)(胀)(风)(险)(限)(制)(了)(政)(策)(放)(松)(的)(空)(间)(。历)(史)(上)(看)(,M2增)(速)(与)(CPI高)(度)(负)(相)(关)(,在)(通)(胀)(抬)(头)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(大)(幅)(度)(放)(松)(的)(空)(间)(有)(限)((图)(表)(9)。
第)(二)(,政)(策)(放)(松)(带)(来)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(。如)(果)(政)(策)(放)(松)(使)(中)(美)(利)(差)(进)(一)(步)(收)(窄)(,人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(会)(推)(高)(通)(胀)((图)(表)(10)。
第)(三)(,收)(缩)(性)(政)(策)(部)(分)(抵)(消)(了)(扩)(张)(性)(政)(策)(的)(效)(果)(。受)(供)(给)(侧)(政)(策)(限)(制)(,政)(策)(放)(松)(之)(后)(,资)(金)(很)(难)(流)(到)(“需)(要)(”的)(地)(方)(。
类)(滞)(胀)(很)(可)(能)(是)(刺)(激)(政)(策)(的)(极)(限)(,但)(却)(是)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(的)(春)(天)(。避)(免)(或)(缓)(解)(类)(滞)(胀)(的)(风)(险)(,可)(以)(从)(两)(个)(方)(面)(着)(手)(。其)(一)(,适)(当)(容)(忍)(经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(放)(慢)(,转)(而)(追)(求)(增)(长)(的)(质)(量)(。如)(果)(设)(定)(一)(个)(过)(高)(的)(增)(长)(门)(槛)(,就)(有)(刺)(激)(经)(济)(的)(冲)(动)(,类)(滞)(胀)(的)(风)(险)(就)(越)(大)(;反)(之)(,防)(滞)(胀)(的)(政)(策)(空)(间)(就)(要)(大)(的)(多)(。其)(二)(,增)(长)(质)(量)(的)(改)(善)(,在)(于)(不)(过)(分)(刺)(激)(周)(期)(性)(行)(业)(,更)(多)(发)(挥)(结)(构)(性)(行)(业)(的)(潜)(力)(。由)(于)(稳)(增)(长)(的)(代)(价)(很)(大)(,刺)(激)(政)(策)(出)(台)(的)(主)(要)(目)(的)(,应)(该)(是)(为)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(措)(施)(的)(出)(台)(赢)(得)(时)(间)(。在)(未)(来)(全)(球)(利)(率)(上)(行)(、中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(和)(类)(滞)(胀)(等)(诸)(多)(因)(素)(叠)(加)(的)(大)(背)(景)(下)(,中)(国)(消)(费)(升)(级)(是)(一)(个)(具)(有)(长)(期)(确)(定)(性)(的)(大)(趋)(势)(。
三)(、类)(滞)(胀)(对)(行)(业)(的)(影)(响)(
如)(果)(中)(国)(类)(滞)(胀)(的)(长)(期)(性)(判)(断)(成)(立)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(我)(们)(务)(必)(致)(力)(于)(寻)(找)(一)(类)(结)(构)(性)(行)(业)(,既)(能)(战)(胜)(长)(期)(盈)(利)(增)(长)(阻)(滞)(,又)(具)(备)(抵)(御)(高)(通)(胀)(的)(属)(性)(。对)(中)(国)(大)(陆)(投)(资)(者)(而)(言)(,能)(源)(、黄)(金)(、必)(需)(消)(费)(均)(是)(较)(好)(的)(选)(择)(,持)(有)(房)(地)(产)(是)(类)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(的)(次)(优)(策)(略)(,而)(与)(经)(济)(周)(期)(高)(度)(相)(关)(的)(周)(期)(性)(行)(业)(则)(需)(要)(规)(避)(。对)(于)(面)(向)(全)(球)(投)(资)(机)(会)(的)(投)(资)(者)(而)(言)(,可)(以)(更)(多)(关)(注)(我)(们)(的)(股)(市)(策)(略)(。
从)(美)(国)(20世)(纪)(70年)(代)(滞)(胀)(的)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,原)(油)(和)(黄)(金)(是)(两)(大)(主)(角)(。1968年)(6月)(至)(1980年)(12月)(期)(间)(,原)(油)(名)(义)(价)(格)(翻)(了)(近)(19.5倍)(,年)(化)(回)(报)(率)(高)(达)(26.1%;伦)(敦)(现)(货)(黄)(金)(价)(格)(从)(41.15美)(元)(/盎)(司)(上)(涨)(到)(589.5美)(元)(/盎)(司)(,年)(化)(回)(报)(率)(近)(22.7%,均)(大)(幅)(跑)(赢)(通)(胀)(。美)(国)(70年)(代)(的)(滞)(胀)(周)(期)(源)(起)(于)(高)(油)(价)(,两)(次)(石)(油)(危)(机)((1973年)(至)(1974年)(、1979年)(至)(1980年)()将)(滞)(胀)(推)(向)(高)(峰)(,使)(得)(原)(油)(成)(为)(表)(现)(最)(佳)(的)(大)(类)(行)(业)(。黄)(金)(则)(体)(现)(出)(强)(势)(的)(抗)(通)(胀)(属)(性)(,加)(上)(金)(融)(属)(性)(和)(避)(险)(需)(求)(,进)(一)(步)(推)(高)(了)(价)(格)(。
类)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(,房)(地)(产)(的)(刚)(性)(泡)(沫)(尚)(可)(勉)(强)(维)(持)(,属)(于)(次)(优)(选)(择)(。美)(国)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(与)(滞)(胀)(的)(关)(系)(似)(乎)(并)(不)(稳)(定)(,但)(在)(中)(国)(类)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(房)(价)(大)(体)(仍)(体)(现)(为)(上)(涨)(,尽)(管)(涨)(幅)(收)(敛)(。美)(国)(1968年)(6月)(-1980年)(12月)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(,Case-shiller房)(价)(指)(数)(仅)(上)(涨)(了)(6.13%,恶)(性)(通)(胀)(期)(间)(房)(价)(出)(现)(大)(跌)(,涨)(幅)(主)(要)(由)(通)(胀)(相)(对)(更)(低)(的)(1976-1978年)(贡)(献)((CPI均)(值)(为)(6.6%)。中)(国)(2010年)(3月)(-2011年)(9月)(类)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(,尽)(管)(涨)(幅)(收)(敛)(,但)(70个)(大)(中)(城)(市)(房)(价)(指)(数)(同)(比)(仍)(为)(正)(增)(长)(,尤)(其)(是)(类)(滞)(胀)(初)(期)(,紧)(缩)(政)(策)(对)(房)(价)(传)(导)(的)(时)(滞)(使)(得)(房)(价)(仍)(较)(快)(上)(涨)(。
但)(对)(于)(大)(部)(分)(行)(业)(而)(言)(,类)(滞)(胀)(的)(环)(境)(是)(盈)(利)(增)(长)(的)(噩)(梦)(。我)(们)(分)(别)(以)(工)(业)(企)(业)(和)(AH上)(市)(公)(司)(为)(样)(本)(,可)(以)(看)(出)(中)(国)(2010-2011年)(类)(滞)(胀)(周)(期)(中)(,企)(业)(盈)(利)(增)(速)(均)(体)(现)(为)(快)(速)(下)(行)(。类)(滞)(胀)(的)(经)(济)(环)(境)(从)(两)(个)(方)(面)(影)(响)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(:其)(一)(,需)(求)(端)(增)(长)(的)(“滞)(”直)(接)(压)(低)(营)(收)(;其)(二)(,供)(给)(端)(成)(本)(的)(“胀)(”降)(低)(毛)(利)(率)(。反)(映)(在)(公)(司)(财)(报)(层)(面)(,类)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(增)(速)(下)(行)(幅)(度)(通)(常)(高)(于)(收)(入)(下)(行)(幅)(度)(,且)(缺)(乏)(规)(模)(效)(应)(的)(中)(小)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(回)(落)(速)(度)(更)(快)(。因)(此)(,经)(历)(类)(滞)(胀)(周)(期)(后)(存)(活)(下)(来)(的)(企)(业)(通)(常)(是)(具)(备)(“长)(坡)(”效)(应)(的)(优)(质)(龙)(头)(,长)(周)(期)(内)(能)(够)(持)(续)(战)(胜)(通)(胀)(。
由)(于)(受)(“滞)(”影)(响)(较)(大)(,周)(期)(性)(行)(业)(缺)(乏)(抵)(御)(类)(滞)(胀)(的)(能)(力)(,尤)(其)(是)(中)(游)(制)(造)(业)(。中)(国)(2010-2011年)(类)(滞)(胀)(周)(期)(中)(,上)(游)(资)(源)(品)(和)(中)(游)(制)(造)(业)(品)(行)(业)(均)(出)(现)(盈)(利)(增)(长)(下)(行)(。但)(不)(同)(行)(业)(之)(间)(也)(会)(出)(现)(分)(化)(,上)(游)(资)(源)(品)(优)(于)(中)(游)(制)(造)(业)(,如)(以)(石)(油)(和)(天)(然)(气)(为)(代)(表)(。相)(较)(而)(言)(,上)(游)(资)(源)(品)(盈)(利)(由)(于)(更)(多)(由)(价)(格)(驱)(动)(,因)(此)(更)(担)(心)(通)(缩)(,滞)(胀)(期)(间)(尽)(管)(盈)(利)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(,但)(绝)(对)(增)(速)(仍)(然)(较)(高)(;中)(游)(制)(造)(业)(盈)(利)(一)(方)(面)(由)(销)(量)(增)(长)(驱)(动)(,更)(担)(心)(“滞)(”,另)(一)(方)(面)(受)(成)(本)(压)(制)(,同)(时)(也)(担)(心)(“胀)(”,受)(到)(需)(求)(端)(和)(成)(本)(端)(的)(双)(重)(挤)(压)(。
相)(比)(之)(下)(,大)(消)(费)(行)(业)(受)(益)(于)(结)(构)(性)(通)(胀)(,具)(备)(较)(好)(的)(防)(御)(属)(性)(;其)(中)(必)(需)(消)(费)(品)(优)(于)(可)(选)(消)(费)(。以)(工)(业)(企)(业)(分)(行)(业)(的)(利)(润)(数)(据)(为)(例)(,家)(具)(、汽)(车)(等)(与)(经)(济)(周)(期)(相)(关)(的)(可)(选)(类)(消)(费)(盈)(利)(增)(速)(在)(类)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(出)(现)(了)(显)(著)(下)(行)(,但)(受)(益)(于)(“胀)(”影)(响)(的)(必)(需)(消)(费)(行)(业)(,如)(食)(品)(、饮)(等)(,盈)(利)(增)(长)(反)(而)(加)(速)(。此)(外)(,医)(药)(生)(物)(也)(可)(纳)(入)(类)(滞)(胀)(防)(御)(行)(业)(的)(范)(畴)(,但)(收)(入)(端)(的)(表)(现)(好)(于)(利)(润)(端)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(盈)(利)(表)(现)(好)(于)(非)(上)(市)(公)(司)(。
四)(、类)(滞)(胀)(时)(期)(的)(投)(资)(策)(略)(
经)(济)(周)(期)(“复)(苏)(-过)(热)(-滞)(胀)(-衰)(退)(”的)(钟)(摆)(对)(应)(着)(大)(类)(资)(产)(配)(置)(的)(轮)(动)(,但)(对)(于)(股)(票)(投)(资)(者)(而)(言)(,滞)(胀)(和)(类)(滞)(涨)(的)(记)(忆)(通)(常)(并)(不)(愉)(快)(。经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(“滞)(”压)(制)(了)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(水)(平)(的)(提)(升)(,要)(素)(成)(本)(的)(“胀)(”杀)(伤)(了)(股)(票)(估)(值)(,同)(时)(高)(通)(胀)(对)(应)(不)(断)(增)(加)(的)(成)(本)(端)(压)(力)(,进)(一)(步)(削)(弱)(企)(业)(的)(长)(期)(成)(长)(性)(。美)(国)(20世)(纪)(70年)(代)(和)(中)(国)(2010-2011年)(的)(经)(验)(均)(表)(明)(,股)(市)(在)(滞)(胀)(和)(“类)(滞)(胀)(”期)(间)(表)(现)(整)(体)(承)(压)(,投)(资)(策)(略)(防)(御)(为)(上)(。
●美)(国)(1968-1970年)(和)(1973-1975年)(两)(次)(滞)(胀)(期)(,美)(股)(均)(出)(现)(大)(跌)(;1979-1980年)(滞)(涨)(期)(,美)(股)(先)(跌)(后)(涨)(。1979年)(开)(始)(,在)(401K计)(划)(获)(得)(法)(律)(认)(可)(、沃)(克)(尔)(入)(主)(联)(储)(严)(控)(高)(通)(胀)(等)(因)(素)(推)(动)(下)(,美)(股)(终)(于)(走)(出)(滞)(涨)(阴)(影)(,随)(后)(开)(启)(80年)(代)(的)(“长)(牛)(”;
●中)(国)(2010-2011年)(类)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(,股)(市)(整)(体)(表)(现)(不)(佳)(,市)(场)(先)(杀)(估)(值)(后)(杀)(盈)(利)(,其)(中)(A股)(弱)(于)(港)(股)(。
从)(行)(业)(结)(构)(来)(看)(,“胀)(”是)(一)(条)(重)(要)(线)(索)(,能)(源)(和)(消)(费)(股)(受)(益)(,是)(类)(滞)(胀)(期)(的)(首)(选)(配)(置)(。美)(国)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(,能)(源)(板)(块)(领)(涨)(,石)(油)(和)(天)(然)(气)(板)(块)(涨)(幅)(分)(别)(位)(居)(第)(一)(、第)(二)(;消)(费)(板)(块)(表)(现)(较)(为)(稳)(健)(,且)(在)(CPI中)(枢)(更)(低)(的)(滞)(涨)(期)((1968-1970年)(),相)(对)(性)(价)(比)(更)(强)(。而)(在)(大)(消)(费)(板)(块)(中)(,盈)(利)(稳)(定)(性)(强)(、且)(受)(益)(于)(通)(胀)(的)(必)(需)(消)(费)(品)(,表)(现)(要)(优)(于)(可)(选)(消)(费)(品)(。
中)(国)(类)(滞)(胀)(期)(间)(的)(行)(业)(结)(构)(体)(现)(出)(类)(似)(于)(美)(国)(滞)(胀)(的)(经)(验)(规)(律)(,其)(中)(消)(费)(板)(块)(出)(现)(上)(涨)(;能)(源)(行)(业)(个)(股)(相)(对)(抗)(跌)(,但)(股)(市)(表)(现)(显)(著)(弱)(于)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(的)(表)(现)(。而)(从)(消)(费)(板)(块)(内)(部)(分)(化)(来)(看)(,必)(需)(消)(费)(板)(块)(的)(股)(市)(表)(现)(同)(样)(优)(于)(可)(选)(消)(费)(板)(块)(。
其)(次)(,如)(何)(走)(出)(“滞)(”是)(另)(一)(条)(重)(要)(线)(索)(,考)(虑)(到)(本)(轮)(类)(滞)(胀)(存)(在)(贸)(易)(战)(的)(因)(素)(,进)(口)(替)(代)(能)(够)(对)(冲)(外)(部)(压)(力)(,医)(疗)(、精)(细)(化)(工)(、高)(端)(制)(造)(等)(产)(业)(有)(望)(中)(长)(期)(内)(受)(益)(。
中)(长)(期)(内)(,中)(美)(贸)(易)(形)(势)(恶)(化)(不)(可)(避)(免)(,加)(快)(进)(口)(替)(代)(已)(刻)(不)(容)(缓)(。一)(方)(面)(,既)(能)(化)(解)(巨)(额)(关)(税)(、技)(术)(制)(裁)(带)(来)(的)(增)(长)(风)(险)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(也)(能)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(缓)(解)(进)(口)(领)(域)(通)(胀)(的)(压)(力)(。从)(美)(国)(拟)(对)(中)(国)(加)(征)(的)(2000亿)(美)(元)(关)(税)(商)(品)(分)(布)(来)(看)(,医)(疗)(、精)(细)(化)(工)(、高)(端)(制)(造)(等)(产)(业)(均)(属)(于)(涉)(税)(领)(域)(,且)(对)(美)(国)(进)(口)(依)(存)(度)(高)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(该)(类)(行)(业)(进)(口)(替)(代)(的)(迫)(切)(性)(较)(高)(,未)(来)(进)(口)(替)(代)(的)(空)(间)(也)(更)(大)(。
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