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广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

中国的金融稳定和资本外逃

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 10:40:55
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(高)(估)(金)(融)(风)(险)(、低)(估)(实)(体)(风)(险)(或)(反)(之)(都)(是)(不)(对)(的)(,都)(会)(导)(致)(政)(策)(偏)(差)(。
01“明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(”是)(怎)(么)(发)(生)(的)(——从)(国)(际)(经)(验)(来)(看)(
那)(么)(,中)(国)(会)(不)(会)(发)(生)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(?我)(们)(先)(从)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(角)(度)(来)(看)(。
发)(生)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(的)(充)(分)(必)(要)(条)(件)(是)(什)(么)(?我)(们)(可)(以)(根)(据)(美)(国)(或)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(经)(验)(做)(出)(一)(个)(总)(结)(。
我)(是)(这)(样)(总)(结)(它)(的)(,对)(一)(个)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(经)(营)(情)(况)(而)(言)(,我)(们)(主)(要)(是)(看)(它)(的)(资)(产)(、负)(债)(和)(股)(东)(权)(益)(是)(否)(会)(出)(现)(盘)(旋)(下)(跌)(的)(恶)(性)(循)(环)(。
对)(于)(国)(家)(来)(讲)(,也)(存)(在)(这)(样)(的)(问)(题)(。一)(个)(国)(家)(陷)(入)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(充)(要)(条)(件)(是)(什)(么)(呢)(?
第)(一)(个)(条)(件)(就)(是)(资)(产)(价)(格)(暴)(跌)(。
不)(管)(是)(由)(于)(什)(么)(原)(因)(导)(致)(资)(产)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(,在)(一)(开)(始)(看)(不)(见)(得)(是)(暴)(跌)(,反)(正)(是)(下)(跌)(了)(,就)(像)(美)(国)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(发)(生)(时)(,和)(房)(地)(产)(相)(关)(的)(那)(些)(金)(融)(工)(具)(,比)(如)(MBS(mortgage-backedsecurity,住)(房)(抵)(押)(支)(持)(债)(券)()、CDO(CollateralizedDebtObligation,担)(保)(债)(务)(凭)(证)()都)(开)(始)(下)(跌)(了)(。
第)(二)(个)(条)(件)(是)(货)(币)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(枯)(竭)(。
资)(产)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(本)(身)(并)(一)(不)(定)(会)(导)(致)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,但)(当)(资)(产)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(后)(,市)(场)(可)(能)(对)(这)(种)(资)(产)(、甚)(至)(对)(金)(融)(机)(构)(丧)(失)(信)(心)(,所)(以)(就)(会)(出)(现)(融)(资)(中)(断)(。比)(如)(说)(在)(美)(国)(金)(融)(机)(构)(持)(有)(的)(MBS、CDO等)(房)(地)(产)(相)(关)(的)(金)(融)(产)(品)(都)(是)(长)(期)(的)(,大)(多)(数)(都)(是)(20年)(、30年)(。
持)(有)(这)(种)(长)(期)(金)(融)(资)(产)(需)(要)(每)(隔)(几)(个)(月)(在)(通)(过)(发)(行)(短)(缺)(债)(券)(在)(货)(币)(市)(场)(融)(资)(,不)(断)(地)(借)(钱)(、还)(钱)(,而)(一)(旦)(金)(融)(市)(场)(不)(愿)(意)(借)(钱)(给)(他)(,他)(就)(很)(难)(继)(续)(持)(续)(持)(有)(这)(个)(金)(融)(资)(产)(。
这)(时)(他)(就)(得)(卖)(出)(,不)(但)(要)(把)(那)(些)(不)(好)(的)(金)(融)(资)(产)(低)(价)(卖)(掉)(,甚)(至)(得)(把)(好)(的)(金)(融)(资)(产)(卖)(掉)(,于)(是)(就)(会)(导)(致)(金)(融)(资)(产)(价)(格)(进)(一)(步)(下)(跌)(。
原)(来)(的)(资)(金)(供)(应)(者)(看)(到)(资)(产)(价)(格)(这)(么)(下)(跌)(,就)(更)(不)(会)(往)(货)(币)(市)(场)(注)(资)(。我)(们)(知)(道)(有)(一)(个)(杠)(杆)(率)(的)(问)(题)(。市)(场)(上)(资)(产)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(了)(,按)(照)(mark-to-market的)(原)(则)(,资)(本)(金)(也)(要)(相)(应)(缩)(减)(。
本)(来)(应)(该)(是)(资)(产)(对)(资)(本)(金)(有)(一)(个)(比)(例)(,比)(如)(是)(10,你)(的)(资)(产)(是)(你)(的)(资)(本)(金)(的)(10倍)(,但)(是)(现)(在)(由)(10降)(到)(5了)(,你)(的)(资)(本)(金)(也)(得)(减)(去)(5,你)(资)(产)(的)(数)(额)(跟)(你)(的)(资)(本)(金)(相)(比)(是)(大)(了)(很)(多)(。
结)(果)(是)(杠)(杆)(率)(不)(降)(反)(上)(升)(了)(。杠)(杆)(率)(的)(上)(升)(使)(你)(还)(得)(接)(着)(卖)(资)(产)(,最)(后)(就)(会)(资)(不)(抵)(债)(。
资)(不)(抵)(债)(,又)(没)(人)(来)(给)(你)(注)(入)(资)(本)(金)(,那)(就)(只)(能)(是)(倒)(闭)(了)(。
美)(国)(的)(金)(融)(危)(机)(从)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(开)(始)(经)(过)(了)(这)(么)(一)(个)(循)(环)(,资)(产)(价)(格)(开)(始)(出)(现)(问)(题)(,负)(债)(方)(流)(动)(性)(没)(有)(了)(,货)(币)(市)(场)(没)(有)(资)(金)(了)(,反)(过)(来)(使)(你)(不)(得)(不)(卖)(资)(产)(。
经)(过)(反)(复)(地)(恶)(性)(循)(环)(,最)(后)(资)(本)(金)(耗)(竭)(了)(,金)(融)(机)(构)(就)(倒)(闭)(了)(。一)(个)(金)(融)(机)(构)(倒)(闭)(,另)(外)(一)(个)(金)(融)(机)(构)(也)(被)(拖)(垮)(,最)(后)(引)(发)(全)(面)(的)(金)(融)(危)(机)(。
第)(三)(个)(条)(件)(是)(资)(本)(金)(无)(法)(得)(到)(补)(充)(。资)(不)(抵)(债)(,金)(融)(机)(构)(就)(破)(产)(了)(。系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(破)(产)(就)(会)(引)(发)(全)(面)(的)(金)(融)(危)(机)(。
总)(之)(,金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(发)(生)(必)(须)(要)(有)(这)(三)(个)(方)(面)(的)(恶)(性)(循)(环)(。
如)(果)(在)(这)(三)(个)(方)(面)(当)(中)(,我)(们)(能)(够)(阻)(止)(其)(中)(任)(何)(一)(个)(方)(面)(的)(进)(一)(步)(地)(恶)(化)(,金)(融)(危)(机)(是)(不)(会)(发)(生)(的)(。
比)(如)(资)(产)(价)(格)(下)(降)(了)(,这)(时)(候)(我)(去)(买)(你)(的)(资)(产)(。比)(如)(美)(联)(储)(为)(了)(使)(美)(国)(的)(金)(融)(危)(机)(不)(进)(一)(步)(恶)(化)(,他)(就)(买)(了)(MBS这)(本)(来)(它)(不)(会)(购)(买)(的)(非)(国)(债)(资)(产)(,防)(止)(它)(进)(一)(步)(下)(跌)(。
如)(果)(他)(能)(够)(做)(到)(这)(一)(点)(,明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(就)(不)(会)(发)(生)(。
如)(果)(货)(币)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(枯)(竭)(了)(,央)(行)(就)(注)(入)(流)(动)(性)(,给)(他)(提)(供)(充)(分)(的)(资)(金)(,这)(个)(时)(候)(金)(融)(机)(构)(就)(不)(一)(定)(要)(抛)(售)(资)(产)(来)(以)(偿)(还)(债)(务)(。这)(样)(,明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(也)(不)(会)(发)(生)(。
如)(果)(金)(融)(机)(构)(已)(经)(资)(不)(抵)(债)(,政)(府)(还)(可)(以)(通)(过)(国)(有)(化)(、债)(转)(股)(等)(方)(式)(,使)(金)(融)(机)(构)(免)(于)(破)(产)(。
我)(想)(强)(调)(的)(是)(,根)(据)(国)(际)(经)(验)(,在)(这)(三)(个)(方)(面)(当)(中)(,针)(对)(任)(何)(一)(个)(方)(面)(或)(者)(其)(中)(几)(个)(方)(面)(,只)(要)(能)(够)(采)(取)(有)(力)(的)(措)(施)(,就)(是)(可)(以)(避)(免)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(导)(致)(的)(严)(重)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(。
02中)(国)(会)(不)(会)(发)(生)(“明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(”?
基)(于)(上)(述)(国)(际)(经)(验)(,再)(从)(三)(个)(方)(面)(来)(看)(我)(们)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(情)(况)(:金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(资)(产)(方)(、负)(债)(方)(和)(资)(本)(金)(。
——从)(资)(产)(方)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(的)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(资)(产)(不)(外)(乎)(是)(股)(市)(、债)(市)(和)(商)(业)(银)(行)(的)(资)(产)(。
一)(是)(股)(市)(方)(面)(。
2016平)(均)(市)(盈)(率)(是)(19倍)(,跟)(2015年)(比)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(,历)(史)(上)(最)(高)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(是)(54倍)(;平)(均)(市)(净)(率)(2.18倍)(,历)(史)(最)(高)(的)(时)(候)(是)(8.47倍)(;平)(均)(的)(波)(动)(率)(2017年)(前)(10个)(月)(是)(12%,不)(是)(特)(别)(高)(,这)(并)(不)(是)(说)(股)(市)(没)(有)(问)(题)(,而)(是)(跟)(2015年)(相)(比)(它)(是)(相)(对)(平)(静)(的)(。
2017年)(从)(股)(市)(的)(角)(度)(来)(讲)(金)(融)(资)(产)(会)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(跌)(的)(可)(能)(性)(不)(大)(,当)(然)(不)(排)(除)(黑)(天)(鹅)(事)(件)(。
二)(是)(债)(市)(方)(面)(。
2016年)(银)(行)(间)(市)(场)(公)(司)(债)(违)(约)(规)(模)(279亿)(元)(,违)(约)(发)(行)(人)(13家)(;交)(易)(所)(4.58亿)(元)(,违)(约)(发)(行)(人)(6家)(。
2017年)(到)(10月)(底)(,银)(行)(间)(市)(场)(公)(司)(债)(违)(约)(规)(模)(32亿)(元)(,违)(约)(发)(行)(人)(3家)(;交)(易)(所)(16.2亿)(元)(,违)(约)(发)(行)(人)(3家)(。
你)(可)(能)(会)(说)(这)(个)(数)(字)(不)(真)(实)(,不)(能)(排)(除)(这)(种)(可)(能)(性)(。
但)(同)(债)(券)(市)(场)(的)(规)(模)(相)(比)(,即)(便)(实)(际)(情)(况)(要)(差)(得)(的)(多)(也)(不)(能)(说)(中)(国)(的)(债)(券)(市)(场)(存)(在)(严)(重)(问)(题)(,因)(而)(债)(券)(的)(资)(产)(价)(格)(会)(大)(幅)(地)(下)(跌)(,会)(导)(致)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(。
三)(是)(银)(行)(方)(面)(。
目)(前)(房)(地)(产)(贷)(款)(,再)(加)(上)(同)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(相)(关)(的)(贷)(款)(在)(银)(行)(贷)(款)(中)(的)(比)(例)(是)(比)(较)(高)(的)(。这)(是)(中)(国)(金)(融)(体)(系)(中)(最)(薄)(弱)(环)(节)(,确)(实)(需)(要)(我)(们)(的)(高)(度)(关)(注)(,但)(是)(这)(并)(不)(意)(味)(着)(中)(国)(的)(银)(行)(体)(系)(马)(上)(就)(要)(发)(生)(危)(机)(。同)(时)(,中)(国)(不)(像)(美)(国)(那)(样)(有)(很)(多)(衍)(生)(金)(融)(产)(品)(,我)(们)(基)(本)(没)(有)(次)(贷)(、MBS、CDO。
目)(前)(的)(关)(键)(问)(题)(是)(房)(地)(产)(的)(价)(格)(会)(不)(会)(暴)(跌)(?这)(个)(问)(题)(我)(觉)(得)(大)(家)(比)(我)(有)(发)(言)(权)(。我)(感)(觉)(不)(会)(,政)(府)(也)(不)(会)(让)(市)(场)(发)(生)(这)(种)(事)(情)(。如)(果)(这)(种)(事)(情)(不)(发)(生)(,也)(就)(不)(至)(于)(一)(下)(子)(使)(银)(行)(的)(资)(产)(严)(重)(恶)(化)(。现)(在)(我)(们)(银)(行)(的)(不)(良)(债)(权)(率)(是)(1.75%,一)(些)(银)(行)(甚)(至)(实)(现)(了)(不)(良)(债)(权)(量)(和)(不)(良)(债)(权)(率)(的)(下)(降)(。
实)(际)(情)(况)(可)(能)(比)(公)(开)(数)(字)(显)(示)(的)(要)(严)(重)(,但)(没)(人)(认)(为)(中)(国)(银)(行)(不)(良)(债)(权)(形)(势)(会)(比)(上)(世)(纪)(末)(、本)(世)(纪)(初)(时)(严)(重)(。
在)(1990年)(代)(末)(、2000年)(代)(初)(期)(,根)(据)(官)(方)(的)(数)(据)(,银)(行)(的)(不)(良)(债)(权)(率)(曾)(达)(到)(25%。
所)(以)(,现)(在)(我)(们)(虽)(然)(也)(不)(能)(掉)(以)(轻)(心)(,但)(是)(不)(能)(把)(这)(个)(事)(情)(估)(计)(得)(过)(于)(严)(重)(,认)(为)(我)(们)(就)(面)(临)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(。
总)(体)(上)(,从)(资)(产)(方)(来)(看)(,我)(认)(为)(我)(们)(现)(在)(并)(没)(有)(面)(临)(着)(金)(融)(资)(产)(会)(大)(幅)(度)(暴)(跌)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。
——从)(负)(债)(方)(来)(看)(,负)(债)(方)(资)(金)(的)(来)(源)(来)(讲)(,中)(国)(可)(能)(更)(不)(是)(一)(个)(特)(别)(大)(的)(问)(题)(。
一)(是)(中)(国)(是)(高)(储)(蓄)(率)(的)(国)(家)(,可)(借)(贷)(资)(金)(充)(裕)(。美)(国)(恰)(恰)(相)(反)(,储)(蓄)(率)(非)(常)(低)(,当)(金)(融)(危)(机)(爆)(发)(的)(时)(候)(,他)(们)(的)(国)(民)(储)(蓄)(率)(只)(有)(4%、5%,而)(中)(国)(是)(他)(的)(10倍)(左)(右)(。
因)(此)(,在)(中)(国)(因)(为)(资)(金)(供)(给)(不)(足)(爆)(发)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(可)(能)(性)(是)(不)(大)(的)(。
二)(是)(中)(国)(的)(制)(度)(安)(排)(是)(其)(他)(国)(家)(所)(不)(能)(相)(比)(的)(。
一)(个)(国)(家)(要)(发)(生)(金)(融)(危)(机)(,其)(中)(绕)(不)(过)(的)(一)(个)(环)(节)(就)(是)(银)(行)(挤)(兑)(。除)(了)(经)(济)(因)(素)(外)(,中)(国)(的)(制)(度)(性)(因)(素)(也)(排)(除)(了)(银)(行)(挤)(兑)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。例)(如)(,共)(产)(党)(员)(们)(大)(概)(是)(不)(会)(去)(挤)(兑)(的)(。共)(产)(党)(员)(起)(了)(带)(头)(作)(用)(,他)(的)(家)(属)(也)(不)(会)(去)(。
三)(是)(由)(于)(加)(强)(了)(资)(本)(管)(制)(,资)(金)(再)(次)(出)(现)(大)(规)(模)(外)(逃)(的)(可)(能)(性)(不)(大)(。
过)(去)(我)(比)(较)(担)(心)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(问)(题)(,现)(在)(资)(本)(项)(目)(的)(自)(由)(化)(的)(步)(伐)(下)(降)(了)(。
原)(来)(无)(论)(是)(政)(府)(的)(还)(是)(党)(内)(的)(文)(件)(都)(有)(一)(个)(“加)(速)(资)(本)(项)(目)(下)(人)(民)(币)(可)(兑)(换)(”的)(提)(法)(,但)(在)(十)(九)(大)(的)(文)(件)(中)(就)(没)(有)(这)(一)(条)(了)(,我)(觉)(得)(中)(央)(还)(算)(及)(时)(把)(这)(个)(政)(策)(做)(了)(调)(整)(。
现)(在)(我)(们)(加)(强)(了)(资)(本)(管)(制)(,大)(规)(模)(的)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(也)(就)(没)(有)(了)(。只)(要)(没)(有)(银)(行)(挤)(兑)(、资)(本)(外)(逃)(这)(条)(道)(路)(被)(切)(断)(,从)(负)(债)(方)(这)(边)(导)(致)(国)(内)(资)(金)(枯)(竭)(而)(恶)(化)(引)(起)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(可)(能)(性)(就)(大)(大)(降)(低)(了)(。
四)(是)(当)(前)(世)(界)(各)(国)(中)(央)(银)(行)(,包)(括)(中)(国)(的)(中)(央)(银)(行)(已)(经)(积)(累)(了)(非)(常)(丰)(富)(的)(处)(理)(流)(动)(性)(短)(缺)(问)(题)(的)(经)(验)(。
在)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(并)(不)(严)(重)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,即)(便)(货)(币)(市)(场)(出)(现)(问)(题)(,通)(过)(降)(息)(、注)(入)(流)(动)(性)(的)(办)(法)(,央)(行)(完)(全)(可)(以)(维)(持)(货)(币)(市)(场)(的)(稳)(定)(。比)(如)(,2013年)(曾)(经)(出)(现)(过)(两)(次)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(急)(剧)(上)(升)(,央)(行)(马)(上)(采)(取)(措)(施)(降)(低)(了)(货)(币)(市)(场)(的)(利)(率)(流)(动)(性)(。
这)(样)(一)(来)(,我)(们)(的)(货)(币)(流)(动)(性)(基)(本)(上)(有)(保)(障)(了)(。可)(以)(说)(,负)(债)(方)(是)(可)(以)(放)(心)(的)(,只)(要)(我)(们)(不)(犯)(政)(策)(错)(误)(,是)(完)(全)(可)(以)(控)(制)(的)(。
——从)(资)(本)(金)(来)(看)(,对)(于)(资)(本)(金)(的)(问)(题)(,刚)(才)(我)(已)(经)(提)(到)(了)(我)(们)(的)(银)(行)(建)(立)(了)(各)(种)(各)(样)(的)(安)(全)(保)(障)(,和)(国)(际)(惯)(例)(相)(比)(来)(讲)(还)(是)(相)(当)(稳)(健)(的)(。
最)(重)(要)(的)(是)(我)(们)(中)(国)(政)(府)(相)(对)(而)(言)(有)(良)(好)(的)(财)(政)(状)(况)(,实)(在)(不)(行)(还)(可)(以)(财)(政)(出)(钱)(。
这)(个)(在)(1990年)(代)(末)(和)(2000年)(代)(初)(我)(们)(都)(做)(过)(这)(样)(的)(事)(情)(,就)(是)(注)(资)(。总)(而)(言)(之)(对)(银)(行)(的)(资)(本)(金)(也)(不)(必)(太)(担)(心)(。
我)(说)(句)(比)(较)(出)(格)(的)(话)(,中)(国)(是)(社)(会)(主)(义)(国)(家)(,我)(们)(的)(大)(部)(分)(银)(行)(是)(国)(有)(银)(行)(,我)(们)(在)(银)(行)(存)(款)(并)(不)(关)(注)(它)(的)(资)(本)(金)(的)(情)(况)(,但)(在)(西)(方)(不)(行)(,如)(果)(银)(行)(没)(有)(资)(本)(金)(,别)(人)(就)(会)(不)(信)(任)(。但)(我)(们)(的)(是)(国)(有)(银)(行)(,即)(使)(资)(本)(金)(为)(零)(,我)(也)(敢)(把)(钱)(也)(存)(到)(那)(里)(去)(,因)(为)(我)(不)(是)(相)(信)(你)(的)(资)(本)(金)(到)(底)(充)(不)(充)(足)(,而)(是)(相)(信)(政)(府)(不)(会)(让)(我)(们)(的)(国)(有)(银)(行)(倒)(台)(。
当)(然)(我)(这)(是)(说)(得)(极)(端)(一)(点)(,我)(们)(还)(是)(要)(遵)(守)(国)(际)(标)(准)(,因)(为)(我)(们)(还)(有)(外)(国)(客)(户)(,他)(们)(不)(会)(这)(么)(看)(这)(个)(问)(题)(。
当)(然)(,我)(这)(样)(讲)(不)(是)(说)(金)(融)(机)(构)(可)(以)(不)(负)(责)(任)(。相)(反)(,如)(果)(金)(融)(机)(构)(如)(果)(出)(了)(问)(题)(,金)(融)(机)(构)(必)(须)(承)(担)(后)(果)(。
例)(如)(领)(导)(层)(必)(须)(承)(担)(法)(律)(责)(任)(。我)(这)(样)(讲)(也)(不)(是)(居)(民)(可)(以)(不)(承)(担)(自)(己)(盲)(目)(投)(资)(的)(后)(果)(。但)(公)(众)(应)(该)(不)(必)(担)(心)(国)(有)(银)(行)(倒)(闭)(,应)(该)(相)(信)(自)(己)(的)(合)(理)(、合)(法)(投)(资)(是)(安)(全)(的)(。
总)(之)(,在)(资)(产)(方)(、负)(债)(方)(和)(资)(本)(金)(这)(三)(个)(方)(面)(,我)(们)(都)(存)(在)(问)(题)(,有)(些)(问)(题)(还)(比)(较)(严)(重)(,但)(是)(总)(体)(而)(言)(我)(们)(并)(不)(存)(在)(着)(要)(发)(生)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(的)(问)(题)(。
强)(调)(这)(一)(点)(有)(什)(么)(意)(义)(呢)(?
我)(认)(为)(强)(调)(了)(这)(一)(点)(之)(后)(,我)(们)(一)(方)(面)(要)(注)(意)(继)(续)(地)(推)(进)(各)(种)(各)(样)(的)(改)(革)(,防)(止)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(的)(发)(展)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(我)(们)(也)(不)(必)(过)(于)(担)(心)(,以)(至)(于)(妨)(碍)(了)(我)(们)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(其)(他)(重)(要)(方)(面)(。
03如)(何)(防)(范)(“明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(”的)(到)(来)(?
第)(一)(,要)(完)(善)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(的)(流)(动)(管)(理)(。现)(在)(我)(们)(已)(经)(在)(做)(了)(,还)(需)(要)(继)(续)(完)(善)(,但)(也)(不)(能)(过)(分)(管)(制)(,妨)(碍)(了)(正)(常)(资)(金)(的)(往)(来)(。要)(使)(资)(金)(可)(能)(尽)(量)(不)(受)(妨)(碍)(的)(跨)(境)(流)(动)(,我)(们)(就)(必)(须)(加)(强)(汇)(率)(的)(灵)(活)(性)(。中)(国)(应)(该)(尽)(可)(能)(减)(少)(对)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(的)(干)(预)(。央)(行)(停)(止)(对)(汇)(市)(常)(态)(化)(干)(预)(的)(做)(法)(是)(十)(分)(正)(确)(的)(,希)(望)(央)(行)(能)(够)(尽)(快)(完)(成)(中)(国)(汇)(率)(体)(制)(改)(革)(。
第)(二)(,抑)(制)(企)(业)(杠)(杆)(率)(上)(升)(。这)(里)(我)(想)(强)(调)(一)(点)(,现)(在)(好)(多)(人)(认)(为)(降)(低)(企)(业)(杠)(杆)(是)(首)(要)(任)(务)(。我)(认)(为)(这)(个)(应)(该)(这)(么)(理)(解)(,杠)(杆)(率)(下)(降)(应)(该)(有)(几)(个)(层)(次)(,一)(个)(是)(增)(长)(速)(度)(要)(下)(降)(,一)(个)(是)(水)(平)(要)(下)(降)(。过)(去)(我)(们)(很)(快)(地)(增)(长)(,现)(在)(让)(它)(增)(长)(速)(度)(降)(低)(,越)(来)(越)(低)(,然)(后)(它)(就)(不)(增)(长)(了)(,然)(后)(才)(下)(降)(,有)(一)(个)(渐)(进)(的)(过)(程)(。
比)(如)(我)(现)(在)(要)(去)(杠)(杆)(,采)(取)(一)(系)(列)(的)(紧)(缩)(措)(施)(,马)(上)(银)(行)(不)(许)(贷)(款)(了)(,不)(让)(企)(业)(借)(款)(了)(,这)(样)(会)(把)(人)(治)(死)(的)(。
我)(认)(为)(要)(降)(低)(杠)(杆)(率)(,首)(先)(要)(降)(低)(上)(升)(速)(度)(。现)(在)(是)(把)(杠)(杆)(的)(绝)(对)(水)(平)(下)(降)(了)(,这)(样)(一)(来)(可)(能)(会)(造)(成)(冲)(击)(,最)(后)(企)(业)(活)(不)(下)(去)(了)(还)(得)(放)(松)(。
我)(们)(曾)(经)(模)(拟)(过)(,根)(据)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(各)(种)(结)(构)(性)(状)(况)(,企)(业)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(会)(怎)(么)(发)(展)(呢)(?
我)(的)(看)(法)(是)(,如)(果)(不)(进)(行)(相)(应)(的)(结)(构)(改)(革)(,它)(确)(实)(会)(不)(断)(上)(升)(,而)(不)(是)(像)(1990年)(代)(末)(期)(,只)(要)(维)(持)(比)(较)(快)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,杠)(杆)(率)(会)(趋)(于)(一)(个)(稳)(定)(的)(水)(平)(。现)(在)(,我)(们)(确)(实)(要)(加)(速)(一)(系)(列)(的)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(,使)(企)(业)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(不)(至)(于)(不)(断)(上)(升)(。但)(是)(,降)(杠)(杆)(应)(该)(是)(个)(较)(为)(长)(期)(的)(过)(程)(。首)(先)(是)(降)(低)(其)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,然)(后)(才)(是)(降)(低)(其)(水)(平)(。如)(果)(急)(于)(求)(成)(,突)(然)(降)(低)(杠)(杆)(过)(度)(,以)(致)(过)(度)(压)(低)(经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,企)(业)(杠)(杆)(率)(就)(会)(不)(降)(反)(升)(。
第)(三)(,防)(止)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(务)(失)(控)(的)(问)(题)(。在)(地)(方)(债)(务)(方)(面)(,南)(方)(一)(般)(都)(是)(不)(错)(的)(,但)(是)(在)(北)(方)(还)(是)(比)(较)(严)(重)(的)(。比)(如)(在)(一)(些)(省)(份)(,就)(会)(有)(地)(方)(领)(导)(讲)(,现)(在)(存)(在)(一)(种)(不)(借)(白)(不)(借)(,总)(是)(有)(中)(央)(政)(府)(托)(底)(的)(心)(理)(,所)(以)(还)(是)(地)(方)(政)(府)(拼)(命)(地)(借)(贷)(,这)(种)(倾)(向)(是)(需)(要)(及)(时)(遏)(制)(的)(。
第)(四)(,加)(强)(金)(融)(监)(管)(、压)(缩)(影)(子)(银)(行)(套)(利)(空)(间)(。中)(国)(政)(府)(在)(这)(方)(面)(已)(经)(出)(台)(了)(一)(系)(列)(政)(策)(措)(施)(,这)(些)(政)(策)(的)(大)(方)(向)(肯)(定)(是)(正)(确)(的)(。但)(是)(,在)(执)(行)(过)(程)(中)(一)(定)(要)(把)(握)(好)(度)(。否)(则)(,过)(犹)(不)(及)(本)(身)(可)(能)(会)(导)(致)(危)(机)(的)(发)(生)(。
二)(、防)(范)(系)(统)(性)(金)(融)(风)(险)(和)(维)(持)(适)(度)(经)(济)(增)(长)(
刚)(才)(我)(对)(明)(斯)(基)(时)(刻)(到)(底)(是)(否)(要)(马)(上)(到)(来)(等)(等)(做)(了)(一)(些)(判)(断)(,我)(觉)(得)(在)(今)(年)(我)(们)(确)(实)(要)(去)(杠)(杆)(,但)(是)(去)(杠)(杆)(要)(温)(和)(一)(些)(,不)(能)(一)(刀)(切)(,而)(是)(要)(充)(分)(发)(挥)(市)(场)(的)(规)(律)(,由)(市)(场)(来)(调)(节)(。
还)(有)(一)(个)(比)(较)(争)(议)(的)(问)(题)(是)(利)(息)(率)(的)(问)(题)(,利)(息)(率)(的)(水)(平)(到)(底)(是)(多)(少)(。2017年)(我)(们)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(是)(中)(性)(偏)(紧)(,过)(去)(银)(行)(一)(直)(给)(我)(们)(释)(放)(了)(这)(样)(的)(信)(号)(。
就)(中)(国)(目)(前)(的)(情)(况)(,考)(虑)(到)(增)(长)(的)(速)(度)(问)(题)(,我)(认)(为)(还)(不)(宜)(过)(早)(地)(提)(升)(利)(息)(率)(。
就)(经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(而)(言)(,在)(北)(京)(,有)(些)(人)(认)(为)(我)(们)(不)(要)(增)(长)(速)(度)(的)(目)(标)(了)(,只)(要)(看)(就)(业)(目)(标)(就)(可)(以)(了)(。这)(是)(不)(对)(的)(,我)(们)(还)(是)(要)(有)(增)(长)(目)(标)(,这)(不)(是)(一)(个)(指)(定)(性)(的)(目)(标)(,而)(是)(一)(个)(指)(导)(性)(的)(目)(标)(,有)(了)(这)(个)(目)(标)(全)(国)(一)(盘)(棋)(大)(家)(可)(以)(根)(据)(这)(样)(的)(目)(标)(来)(制)(定)(自)(己)(的)(一)(些)(商)(业)(活)(动)(计)(划)(,这)(是)(必)(要)(的)(。
最)(近)(我)(一)(直)(强)(调)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(重)(要)(性)(。1990年)(,中)(国)(的)(经)(济)(体)(总)(量)(按)(美)(元)(算)(只)(是)(日)(本)(的)(1/8,现)(在)(我)(们)(差)(不)(多)(是)(日)(本)(的)(2.3倍)(,从)(1990年)(到)(现)(在)(,这)(么)(短)(的)(时)(间)(,发)(生)(这)(么)(大)(的)(变)(化)(,就)(是)(因)(为)(中)(国)(保)(持)(了)(很)(高)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,而)(日)(本)(基)(本)(上)(没)(怎)(么)(增)(长)(。所)(以)(说)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(是)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(,没)(有)(速)(度)(就)(没)(有)(中)(国)(的)(今)(天)(。
以)(后)(我)(们)(要)(更)(加)(注)(重)(增)(长)(的)(质)(量)(,我)(们)(需)(要)(适)(度)(降)(低)(增)(长)(速)(度)(,但)(绝)(不)(能)(认)(为)(我)(们)(就)(不)(需)(要)(增)(长)(速)(度)(了)(,如)(果)(这)(样)(的)(话)(中)(国)(可)(能)(会)(失)(去)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(势)(头)(。
01 中)(国)(国)(际)(收)(支)(和)(海)(外)(资)(产)(积)(累)(存)(在)(的)(两)(大)(问)(题)(
在)(国)(际)(收)(支)(和)(海)(外)(积)(累)(方)(面)(,中)(国)(有)(两)(大)(问)(题)(。
第)(一)(个)(问)(题)(是)(中)(国)(的)(国)(际)(收)(支)(长)(期)(以)(来)(是)(投)(资)(收)(入)(逆)(差)(。一)(般)(人)(不)(太)(注)(意)(这)(个)(,投)(资)(收)(入)(或)(投)(资)(收)(益)(是)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(中)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(一)(项)(,中)(国)(在)(海)(外)(投)(资)(,有)(海)(外)(债)(务)(,也)(有)(海)(外)(资)(产)(,但)(海)(外)(资)(产)(大)(于)(海)(外)(债)(务)(,所)(以)(我)(们)(有)(净)(资)(产)(。既)(然)(有)(净)(资)(产)(,就)(应)(该)(有)(净)(收)(益)(,好)(比)(在)(银)(行)(存)(了)(钱)(,当)(然)(要)(跟)(银)(行)(收)(利)(息)(一)(样)(。但)(值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,我)(们)(虽)(然)(有)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(,是)(债)(权)(人)(,但)(是)(十)(多)(年)(来)(我)(们)(都)(给)(外)(国)(人)(付)(利)(息)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(很)(不)(正)(常)(的)(现)(象)(。据)(我)(所)(知)(世)(界)(上)(再)(没)(有)(第)(二)(个)(国)(家)(是)(这)(样)(。
第)(二)(个)(问)(题)(是)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(的)(流)(失)(。我)(到)(银)(行)(存)(钱)(,不)(但)(收)(不)(到)(利)(息)(而)(且)(还)(要)(给)(银)(行)(付)(利)(息)(。这)(本)(来)(已)(经)(是)(十)(分)(令)(人)(懊)(恼)(的)(了)(,更)(糟)(糕)(的)(是)(:除)(付)(息)(外)(,我)(每)(年)(还)(新)(存)(进)(银)(行)(许)(多)(钱)(,但)(存)(了)(差)(不)(多)(十)(年)(的)(钱)(后)(到)(银)(行)(去)(查)(账)(,一)(看)(本)(金)(不)(但)(没)(有)(增)(长)(,而)(且)(减)(少)(了)(。这)(个)(缺)(口)(到)(底)(有)(多)(大)(?1.3万)(亿)(美)(元)(!这)(可)(不)(是)(一)(个)(小)(数)(目)(。但)(却)(没)(有)(引)(起)(什)(么)(注)(意)(。我)(不)(知)(道)(为)(什)(么)(大)(家)(不)(关)(注)(这)(个)(问)(题)(。
02中)(国)(是)(资)(本)(净)(输)(出)(国)(
我)(问)(一)(个)(问)(题)(,中)(国)(是)(资)(本)(净)(输)(出)(国)(还)(是)(净)(输)(入)(国)(?我)(在)(不)(同)(大)(学)(向)(学)(生)(们)(问)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,90%的)(回)(答)(都)(是)(错)(的)(。这)(个)(问)(题)(其)(实)(很)(容)(易)(回)(答)(。如)(果)(一)(个)(国)(家)(有)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(,这)(个)(国)(家)(就)(一)(定)(是)(资)(本)(净)(输)(出)(国)(。其)(他)(你)(都)(不)(用)(管)(。我)(们)(的)(引)(资)(政)(策)(非)(常)(成)(功)(,引)(入)(了)(大)(量)(FDI(ForeignDirectInvestment,外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)(),报)(纸)(也)(这)(么)(宣)(传)(。于)(是)(,公)(众)(就)(认)(为)(中)(国)(是)(一)(个)(资)(本)(输)(入)(国)(。
但)(是)(大)(家)(忘)(了)(,在)(引)(入)(FDI的)(同)(时)(我)(们)(还)(买)(了)(大)(量)(美)(国)(国)(库)(券)(,这)(是)(资)(本)(输)(出)(。中)(国)(从)(1993年)(开)(始)(到)(现)(在)(,年)(年)(有)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(,因)(而)(中)(国)(是)(不)(折)(不)(扣)(的)(资)(本)(净)(输)(出)(国)(。当)(中)(国)(是)(资)(本)(净)(输)(出)(国)(的)(时)(候)(,中)(国)(的)(人)(均)(国)(民)(收)(入)(才)(400美)(元)(,美)(国)(是)(多)(少)(?三)(四)(万)(美)(元)(。这)(相)(当)(于)(杨)(白)(劳)(给)(黄)(世)(仁)(借)(钱)(。不)(仅)(如)(此)(,杨)(白)(劳)(借)(钱)(给)(黄)(世)(仁)(,他)(不)(但)(不)(能)(从)(黄)(世)(仁)(那)(里)(得)(到)(利)(息)(,他)(还)(得)(给)(黄)(世)(仁)(付)(利)(息)(。中)(国)(的)(海)(外)(净)(头)(寸)(最)(高)(的)(时)(候)(差)(不)(多)(2万)(亿)(美)(元)(,也)(是)(中)(国)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(最)(多)(的)(时)(候)(。
中)(国)(投)(资)(收)(益)(率)(2009年)(以)(后)(都)(是)(负)(的)(。这)(是)(杨)(白)(劳)(借)(钱)(给)(了)(黄)(世)(仁)(,还)(要)(向)(黄)(世)(仁)(付)(利)(息)(。2013年)(接)(近)(-1000亿)(美)(元)((见)(图)(1)。
▲图)(1:中)(国)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)((债)(权)()与)(投)(资)(收)(益)(。
这)(可)(是)(一)(笔)(极)(大)(的)(资)(金)(,中)(国)(的)(这)(种)(情)(况)(是)(否)(在)(世)(界)(上)(普)(遍)(存)(在)(呢)(?我)(没)(找)(到)(第)(二)(例)(。
为)(了)(对)(比)(,下)(面)(是)(日)(本)(的)(情)(况)((图)(2):
▲图)(2:日)(本)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)((债)(权)()与)(投)(资)(收)(益)(。
中)(国)(是)(美)(国)(的)(净)(债)(权)(国)(,为)(什)(么)(要)(给)(美)(国)(付)(利)(息)(呢)(?因)(为)(咱)(们)(买)(美)(国)(的)(国)(库)(券)(的)(收)(益)(非)(常)(低)(,顶)(多)(是)(3%、4%。在)(2008年)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(时)(候)(收)(益)(都)(不)(足)(1%,而)(美)(国)(在)(中)(国)(投)(资)(的)(收)(入)(是)(多)(少)(?跨)(国)(公)(司)(在)(中)(国)(的)(投)(资)(收)(益)(有)(多)(少)(?
2008年)(美)(国)(一)(个)(非)(常)(权)(威)(的)(机)(构)(——大)(型)(企)(业)(联)(合)(会)(,在)(中)(国)(做)(了)(广)(泛)(调)(研)(后)(得)(出)(结)(论)(:美)(国)(跨)(国)(公)(司)(在)(中)(国)(的)(投)(资)(收)(益)(是)(33%。同)(样)(是)(在)(2008年)(,世)(界)(银)(行)(也)(对)(跨)(国)(公)(司)(在)(中)(国)(的)(收)(益)(做)(了)(一)(个)(调)(查)(,平)(均)(回)(报)(率)(是)(22%。所)(以)(,由)(于)(海)(外)(资)(产)(负)(债)(结)(构)(不)(合)(理)((有)(历)(史)(原)(因)(),尽)(管)(中)(国)(是)(债)(权)(人)(,还)(得)(给)(债)(务)(人)(付)(利)(息)(。
其)(他)(国)(家)(必)(须)(积)(累)(以)(美)(国)(国)(库)(券)(为)(形)(式)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(,实)(质)(上)(是)(美)(国)(利)(用)(国)(际)(货)(币)(体)(系)(赋)(予)(的)(特)(权)(,向)(全)(世)(界)(征)(税)(,让)(全)(世)(界)(为)(他)(服)(务)(。我)(们)(积)(累)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(越)(多)(,美)(国)(越)(高)(兴)(。顺)(便)(说)(一)(下)(,为)(什)(么)(前)(不)(久)(美)(国)(还)(逼)(着)(人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(呢)(?当)(时)(中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(有)(大)(量)(的)(“双)(顺)(差)(”,如)(果)(是)(浮)(动)(汇)(率)(,人)(民)(币)(就)(升)(值)(了)(。升)(值)(后)(,贸)(易)(顺)(差)(就)(会)(减)(少)(,国)(际)(收)(支)(就)(会)(实)(现)(基)(本)(平)(衡)(。可)(咱)(们)(不)(干)(,非)(要)(对)(美)(国)(保)(持)(大)(量)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(,这)(同)(中)(国)(的)(根)(深)(蒂)(固)(的)(重)(商)(主)(义)(思)(想)(有)(关)(。
中)(国)(不)(升)(值)(对)(自)(己)(没)(有)(好)(处)(,可)(为)(什)(么)(美)(国)(也)(要)(中)(国)(升)(值)(呢)(?
美)(国)(布)(什)(时)(期)(的)(总)(统)(经)(济)(顾)(问)(委)(员)(会)(办)(公)(室)(主)(任)(写)(过)(一)(篇)(文)(章)(专)(门)(谈)(人)(民)(币)(的)(问)(题)(。我)(跟)(他)(交)(流)(过)(,他)(说)(美)(国)(从)(中)(国)(对)(我)(们)(美)(国)(的)(贸)(易)(和)(汇)(率)(政)(策)(中)(得)(到)(了)(双)(重)(好)(处)(:第)(一)(重)(好)(处)(是)(廉)(价)(商)(品)(卖)(到)(美)(国)(去)(了)(,非)(常)(便)(宜)(,压)(低)(了)(美)(国)(人)(的)(物)(价)(,改)(善)(了)(他)(们)(的)(生)(活)(;第)(二)(重)(是)(中)(国)(挣)(的)(外)(汇)(又)(去)(买)(美)(国)(的)(国)(库)(券)(,向)(美)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(注)(入)(了)(资)(金)(,压)(低)(了)(利)(息)(,保)(持)(了)(美)(国)(房)(地)(产)(的)(繁)(荣)(。我)(得)(到)(了)(双)(重)(好)(处)(。那)(为)(什)(么)(还)(骂)(中)(国)(?
他)(说)(秘)(密)(就)(是)(:你)(们)(这)(么)(一)(个)(国)(家)(,我)(们)(越)(让)(你)(们)(干)(什)(么)(你)(们)(越)(不)(干)(什)(么)(,我)(让)(你)(升)(值)(你)(们)(越)(不)(升)(值)(。这)(样)(,就)(可)(以)(使)(我)(们)(的)(好)(生)(活)(永)(远)(维)(持)(下)(去)(。
三)(、中)(国)(海)(外)(资)(产)(的)(流)(失)(
今)(天)(主)(要)(是)(讲)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(的)(流)(失)(,我)(不)(讲)(持)(有)(大)(量)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(但)(投)(资)(收)(益)(为)(负)(的)(问)(题)(了)(。
为)(了)(讨)(论)(清)(楚)(海)(外)(资)(产)(净)(流)(失)(问)(题)(,需)(要)(把)(一)(些)(基)(本)(概)(念)(稍)(微)(重)(复)(一)(下)(,刚)(才)(我)(讲)(了)(“当)(年)(的)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(等)(于)(当)(年)(的)(资)(本)(净)(输)(出)(”,经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(有)(多)(少)(,你)(这)(一)(年)(的)(资)(本)(净)(输)(出)(就)(有)(多)(少)(。我)(今)(年)(是)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(,去)(年)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(,前)(年)(、大)(前)(年)(、十)(几)(年)(都)(是)(如)(此)(。这)(个)(时)(期)(累)(积)(的)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(额)(应)(该)(等)(于)(同)(期)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(的)(增)(加)(额)(。
中)(国)(的)(实)(际)(情)(况)(是)(什)(么)(样)(的)(?
从)(2011年)(到)(2016年)(第)(三)(季)(度)(,中)(国)(输)(出)(了)(1.28万)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(净)(资)(本)(,但)(是)(这)(些)(资)(本)(并)(未)(转)(化)(成)(中)(国)(的)(海)(外)(资)(产)(,相)(反)(,中)(国)(的)(海)(外)(资)(产)(减)(少)(了)(124亿)(美)(元)((图)(3)。
▲图)(3:国)(际)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)(与)(经)(常)(账)(户)(变)(化)((单)(位)(:亿)(美)(元)()。
近)(1.3万)(亿)(美)(元)(下)(落)(不)(明)(,这)(钱)(哪)(去)(了)(?
当)(然)(,经)(常)(项)(目)(的)(累)(积)(额)(和)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(的)(增)(加)(相)(等)(只)(是)(理)(论)(上)(的)(。在)(现)(实)(中)(,两)(者)(是)(应)(该)(是)(有)(一)(定)(的)(差)(距)(的)(,甚)(至)(有)(的)(差)(距)(比)(较)(大)(。但)(是)(从)(2011年)(到)(2016年)(,攒)(了)(这)(么)(多)(钱)(,1.28万)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(净)(输)(出)(,最)(后)(本)(都)(没)(了)(,这)(种)(情)(况)(可)(以)(说)(是)(中)(、外)(历)(史)(上)(没)(有)(见)(过)(的)(。为)(什)(么)(累)(积)(的)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(同)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(形)(成)(之)(间)(的)(缺)(口)(如)(此)(巨)(大)(呢)(?官)(方)(和)(半)(官)(方)(的)(解)(释)(是)(统)(计)(误)(差)(和)(统)(计)(口)(径)(调)(整)(造)(成)(的)(。
换)(言)(之)(,1.28万)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(损)(失)(或)(丢)(失)(是)(不)(存)(在)(的)(,这)(只)(是)(一)(个)(统)(计)(问)(题)(。“天)(下)(本)(无)(事)(,庸)(人)(自)(扰)(之)(”。
如)(果)(你)(在)(银)(行)(存)(钱)(,年)(年)(都)(把)(几)(万)(块)(钱)(存)(进)(银)(行)(。现)(在)(到)(银)(行)(查)(帐)(,发)(现)(你)(银)(行)(存)(款)(不)(但)(没)(有)(增)(加)(反)(而)(减)(少)(了)(。你)(问)(银)(行)(是)(怎)(么)(回)(事)(,得)(到)(的)(答)(覆)(是)(记)(帐)(错)(误)(。你)(会)(善)(罢)(甘)(休)(吗)(?
这)(个)(缺)(口)(是)(怎)(么)(来)(的)(呢)(?我)(们)(可)(以)(从)(图)(4看)(到)(,这)(个)(缺)(口)(从)(2008年)(就)(存)(在)(了)(,而)(且)(都)(是)(负)(缺)(口)(。
▲图)(4:海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(增)(加)(额)(同)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(之)(间)(的)(缺)(口)(。
为)(了)(更)(好)(地)(解)(释)(造)(成)(这)(个)(缺)(口)(的)(原)(因)(,可)(以)(根)(据)(从)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(到)(资)(本)(净)(流)(出)(、从)(资)(本)(净)(流)(出)(到)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(形)(成)(的)(三)(个)(节)(点)(、两)(个)(环)(节)(,可)(把)(总)(缺)(口)(分)(为)(两)(个)(缺)(口)((图)(5):
一)(是)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(和)(资)(本)(净)(流)(出)(的)(缺)(口)(,二)(是)(资)(本)(净)(流)(出)(和)(对)(外)(净)(资)(产)(形)(成)(的)(缺)(口)(。
而)(这)(两)(个)(缺)(口)(规)(模)(的)(形)(成)(原)(因)(,可)(以)(分)(别)(从)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(和)(国)(际)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)(上)(找)(到)(线)(索)(。
由)(于)(找)(不)(到)(更)(好)(的)(办)(法)(和)(统)(计)(资)(料)(,我)(们)(只)(好)(用)(上)(述)(两)(个)(表)(中)(的)(相)(应)(项)(目)(和)(相)(应)(项)(目)(之)(间)(的)(关)(系)(,分)(别)(代)(表)(“资)(本)(净)(流)(出)(同)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(之)(间)(的)(缺)(口)(”和)(“海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(形)(成)(同)(资)(本)(净)(流)(出)(之)(间)(的)(”。
第)(一)(个)(缺)(口)(=国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)((BP)上)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(帐)(户)(流)(出)(规)(模)(,我)(们)(称)(之)(为)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(1
第)(二)(个)(缺)(口)(=国)(际)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)((IIP)上)(扣)(除)(交)(易)(、各)(调)(整)(项)(目)(之)(后)(,年)(末)(头)(寸)(与)(年)(初)(头)(寸)(之)(间)(的)(差)(额)(,我)(们)(称)(之)(为)(为)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(2
▲图)(5:国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)((误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(I),国)(际)(收)(支)(头)(寸)(表)(上)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)((误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(II)变)(化)(轨)(迹)(。
第)(一)(个)(缺)(口)(同)(资)(金)(跨)(境)(流)(动)(有)(关)(,第)(二)(个)(缺)(口)(同)(资)(金)(出)(境)(后)(的)(海)(外)(形)(成)(资)(产)(有)(关)(。两)(个)(缺)(口)(形)(成)(原)(因)(的)(性)(质)(有)(所)(不)(同)(,但)(我)(认)(为)(两)(个)(缺)(口)(都)(主)(要)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(造)(成)(的)(。
把)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(对)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(形)(成)(缺)(口)(分)(为)(两)(个)(缺)(口)(分)(别)(进)(行)(分)(析)(,可)(以)(更)(准)(确)(说)(明)(为)(什)(么)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(是)(形)(成)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(对)(海)(外)(资)(产)(形)(成)(缺)(口)(的)(原)(因)(。
为)(什)(么)(我)(们)(可)(以)(用)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(的)(“误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)(”代)(表)(第)(一)(个)(缺)(口)(呢)(?为)(了)(做)(一)(个)(铺)(垫)(,我)(们)(先)(谈)(谈)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(。
它)(有)(三)(大)(项)(:一)(是)(经)(常)(账)(户)(,二)(是)(资)(本)(和)(金)(融)(账)(户)(,三)(是)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(。过)(去)(我)(们)(常)(讲)(中)(国)(有)(双)(顺)(差)(,双)(顺)(差)(就)(是)(既)(有)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(,又)(有)(资)(本)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(。双)(顺)(差)(就)(会)(导)(致)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(增)(加)(。
经)(常)(账)(户)(里)(面)(主)(要)(包)(含)(两)(个)(项)(目)(,一)(个)(是)(贸)(易)(项)(目)(,一)(个)(是)(投)(资)(收)(益)(项)(目)(。资)(本)(和)(金)(融)(账)(户)(下)(又)(分)(出)(许)(多)(子)(项)(目)(。
国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(采)(取)(的)(是)(复)(式)(薄)(记)(原)(则)(:一)(笔)(交)(易)(记)(两)(笔)(帐)(——贷)(放)(和)(借)(方)(;两)(者)(相)(加)(等)(于)(零)(。
在)(经)(常)(项)(目)(下)(,如)(果)(是)(出)(口)(就)(记)(入)(贷)(方)((标)(上)(正)(号)(),进)(口)(则)(记)(入)(借)(方)((标)(上)(负)(号)();投)(资)(收)(入)(是)(进)(项)(就)(记)(入)(贷)(方)((标)(上)(正)(号)(),是)(出)(项)(就)(记)(入)(借)(方)((标)(上)(负)(号)()。
在)(资)(本)(和)(金)(融)(项)(目)(下)(,凡)(是)(增)(加)(了)(海)(外)(负)(债)((如)(增)(加)(了)(FDI)和)(减)(少)(海)(外)(资)(产)(的)(金)(额)(就)(标)(上)(正)(号)(,凡)(是)(减)(少)(了)(海)(外)(负)(债)(和)(增)(加)(了)(海)(外)(资)(产)((如)(购)(买)(了)(美)(国)(国)(库)(券)()的)(金)(额)(就)(标)(上)(负)(号)(。
因)(为)(是)(复)(式)(薄)(记)(,带)(有)(不)(同)(符)(号)(的)(所)(有)(项)(目)(的)(金)(额)(相)(加)(后)(应)(该)(等)(于)(0。如)(果)(不)(等)(于)(零)(,就)(把)(差)(额)(计)(为)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(留)(。误)(差)(与)(遗)(留)(项)(的)(数)(额)(同)(前)(述)(所)(有)(项)(目)(的)(合)(计)(相)(等)(、符)(号)(相)(反)(。因)(而)(,加)(上)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(向)(后)(,国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(的)(所)(有)(项)(目)(之)(和)(一)(定)(等)(于)(0。
中)(国)(国)(际)(收)(支)(表)(上)(的)(一)(个)(显)(著)(特)(点)(是)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)(数)(额)(巨)(大)(。国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(是)(什)(么)(原)(因)(造)(成)(的)(?
学)(界)(对)(此)(有)(争)(论)(,有)(说)(是)(统)(计)(误)(差)(,有)(说)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。
理)(论)(上)(,导)(致)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(出)(现)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(可)(能)(原)(因)(有)(三)(:
一)(是)(统)(计)(原)(因)(。覆)(盖)(范)(围)(不)(当)(、误)(报)(、漏)(报)(、同)(一)(笔)(交)(易)(的)(贷)(方)(分)(录)(和)(借)(方)(分)(录)(的)(数)(据)(来)(源)(不)(同)((如)(贸)(易)(数)(据)(来)(自)(海)(关)(但)(创)(汇)(数)(据)(来)(自)(银)(行)()、信)(息)(采)(集)(时)(间)(不)(同)(,等)(等)(。
二)(是)(与)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(无)(关)(的)(有)(意)(高)(报)(或)(低)(报)(。
三)(是)(与)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(相)(关)(的)(有)(意)(高)(报)(或)(低)(报)(。
目)(前)(最)(流)(行)(的)(说)(法)(是)(:误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(是)(统)(计)(误)(差)(造)(成)(的)(,并)(不)(反)(映)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。我)(和)(我)(的)(同)(事)(则)(认)(为)(,最)(近)(几)(年)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(反)(映)(,尽)(管)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(实)(际)(规)(模)(可)(能)(更)(大)(。
首)(先)(,如)(果)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(是)(统)(计)(误)(差)(造)(成)(的)(,误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(时)(间)(序)(列)(应)(该)(呈)(现)(白)(噪)(音)(的)(特)(征)(。事)(实)(如)(何)(呢)(?
▲图)(6:美)(国)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(。
▲图)(7:英)(国)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(。
▲图)(8:中)(国)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)((季)(度)(数)()。
▲图)(9:中)(国)(bop表)(上)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)((年)(度)(数)()。
美)(国)(也)(有)(很)(大)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(要)(调)(整)(,一)(会)(儿)(多)(一)(会)(儿)(少)((图)(6),英)(国)(也)(这)(样)(来)(回)(变)(的)((图)(7),你)(把)(它)(平)(均)(起)(来)(美)(国)(和)(英)(国)(大)(致)(是)(接)(近)(0这)(一)(条)(水)(平)(线)(。
中)(国)(呢)(?从)(2008年)(开)(始)(一)(个)(方)(向)(变)(,一)(直)(下)(行)(。
特)(别)(是)(2011年)(,这)(个)(坡)(一)(路)(下)(来)(了)((图)(8),如)(果)(你)(按)(年)(度)(计)(算)(,误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(不)(会)(因)(月)(度)(不)(同)(而)(不)(同)(,从)(而)(相)(互)(抵)(消)(。相)(反)(它)(的)(变)(化)(趋)(势)(是)(十)(分)(明)(显)(的)((图)(9)。
你)(说)(这)(个)(是)(误)(差)(遗)(漏)(,它)(怎)(么)(偏)(偏)(往)(下)(的)(方)(向)(漏)(,不)(往)(上)(面)(漏)(?
白)(噪)(音)(就)(是)(白)(噪)(音)(,没)(有)(什)(么)(因)(果)(关)(系)(。但)(是)(中)(国)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(规)(模)(同)(人)(民)(币)(的)(汇)(率)(预)(期)(有)(相)(当)(强)(的)(相)(关)(关)(系)((图)(10)。
▲图)(10:误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(同)(汇)(率)(有)(显)(著)(相)(关)(关)(系)(。
误)(差)(遗)(漏)(随)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(的)(增)(加)(而)(增)(加)(。如)(果)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(是)(纯)(粹)(的)(统)(计)(原)(因)(造)(成)(的)(,它)(们)(之)(间)(就)(不)(应)(该)(发)(生)(这)(种)(相)(关)(关)(系)(。既)(然)(不)(应)(该)(把)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(归)(结)(为)(统)(计)(误)(差)(,那)(么)(是)(什)(么)(东)(西)(造)(成)(了)(近)(几)(年)(来)(的)(庞)(大)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(呢)(?
自)(2011年)(到)(2016年)(第)(三)(季)(度)(,国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(累)(积)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(额)(是)(6千)(多)(亿)(美)(元)(,占)(了)(累)(积)(的)(经)(常)(项)(目)(的)(顺)(差)(累)(积)(额)((1.28万)(亿)(美)(元)()的)(一)(半)(还)(多)(,这)(个)(数)(目)(不)(可)(不)(谓)(大)(的)(惊)(人)(。
我)(认)(为)(这)(6千)(多)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(中)(的)(大)(部)(分)(应)(该)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。
01 什)(么)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(?
下)(面)(,我)(们)(先)(定)(义)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(;然)(后)(考)(察)(现)(实)(中)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(路)(径)(,从)(中)(总)(结)(出)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(同)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(之)(间)(的)(关)(系)(;最)(后)(判)(断)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(在)(多)(大)(程)(度)(上)(能)(够)(反)(映)((虽)(然)(不)(全)(面)()资)(本)(外)(逃)(。
首)(先)(有)(必)(要)(把)(资)(本)(外)(流)(和)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(区)(别)(一)(下)(,资)(本)(外)(流)(一)(般)(情)(况)(下)(是)(合)(法)(的)(。资)(本)(外)(流)(是)(我)(到)(海)(外)(投)(资)(,资)(本)(流)(出)(去)(了)(,在)(某)(些)(情)(况)(下)(以)(某)(种)(方)(式)(流)(出)(去)(,可)(能)(对)(中)(国)(经)(济)(不)(好)(,但)(是)(你)(不)(能)(说)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。资)(本)(外)(逃)(一)(般)(来)(讲)(都)(是)(违)(法)(的)(。比)(如)(大)(家)(去)(使)(用)(5万)(美)(元)(的)(额)(度)(,这)(是)(资)(本)(外)(流)(。
在)(特)(定)(条)(件)(下)(,大)(家)(都)(去)(换)(汇)(可)(能)(不)(利)(于)(汇)(率)(和)(金)(融)(稳)(定)(。但)(这)(种)(外)(流)(是)(合)(法)(的)(,不)(能)(说)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。但)(如)(果)(一)(个)(人)(借)(100个)(身)(份)(证)(去)(换)(500万)(美)(元)(,这)(就)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(了)(。资)(本)(外)(逃)(有)(各)(种)(定)(义)(,我)(们)(把)(它)(定)(义)(为)(源)(于)(某)(种)(负)(面)(冲)(击)(,且)(会)(对)(国)(民)(福)(利)(造)(成)(永)(久)(性)(损)(害)(的)(资)(本)(外)(流)(。
资)(本)(外)(逃)(是)(资)(本)(外)(流)(的)(一)(种)(,但)(是)(资)(本)(外)(流)(不)(等)(于)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。资)(本)(外)(流)(和)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(性)(质)(不)(同)(,所)(以)(处)(理)(方)(法)(也)(是)(不)(同)(的)(。比)(如)(说)(资)(本)(外)(流)(我)(们)(通)(过)(改)(革)(利)(息)(率)(、改)(变)(汇)(率)(这)(种)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(的)(政)(策)(,一)(般)(来)(讲)(可)(以)(加)(以)(调)(控)(。但)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(他)(是)(想)(跑)(,你)(这)(些)(政)(策)(就)(可)(能)(没)(用)(了)(。他)(要)(想)(跑)(,哪)(怕)(损)(失)(50%他)(也)(得)(跑)(,所)(以)(对)(于)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(你)(就)(必)(须)(得)(有)(一)(个)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(的)(管)(理)(,说)(句)(不)(好)(听)(的)(就)(是)(资)(本)(管)(制)(。你)(用)(间)(接)(的)(方)(法)(遏)(制)(不)(住)(它)(的)(。
02实)(现)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(途)(径)(
实)(现)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(途)(径)(是)(什)(么)(?我)(相)(信)(在)(座)(的)(诸)(位)(比)(我)(知)(道)(的)(多)(,我)(只)(是)(在)(这)(儿)(简)(单)(列)(一)(下)(。
"低)(报)(出)(口)(,把)(出)(口)(收)(入)(留)(在)(国)(外)(;
"出)(口)(商)(推)(迟)(汇)(回)(出)(口)(收)(入)(;
"境)(外)(刷)(银)(行)(卡)(虚)(假)(购)(物)(;
"赌)(场)(刷)(卡)(购)(买)(筹)(码)(后)(,通)(过)(与)(他)(人)(交)(换)(或)(直)(接)(退)(筹)(进)(行)(套)(现)(;
"购)(买)(高)(档)(奢)(侈)(品)(、会)(籍)(、收)(藏)(品)(后)(,转)(手)(他)(人)(后)(,获)(得)(外)(汇)(现)(金)(;
"刷)(卡)(虚)(假)(购)(买)(后)(以)(退)(货)(形)(式)(兑)(现)(;
"高)(价)(购)(买)(外)(国)(球)(员)(、俱)(乐)(部)(,通)(过)(幕)(后)(协)(议)(转)(移)(资)(产)(;
"高)(开)(发)(票)(;向)(外)(国)(出)(口)(商)(支)(付)(超)(过)(进)(口)(品)(实)(际)(价)(值)(的)(货)(款)(,后)(者)(再)(通)(过)(境)(外)(帐)(户)(将)(差)(价)(存)(入)(中)(国)(进)(口)(商)(的)(境)(外)(帐)(户)(;
"以)(境)(外)(应)(收)(款)(虚)(增)(利)(润)(,以)(企)(业)(完)(税)(证)(明)(和)(董)(事)(会)(利)(润)(分)(配)(决)(议)(为)(凭)(将)(利)(润)(汇)(出)((外)(商)(投)(资)(收)(益)(高)(报)();
"低)(估)(境)(外)(资)(产)(价)(格)(,截)(留)(利)(润)(汇)(回)((海)(外)(投)(资)(收)(益)(低)(报)();
"中)(企)(推)(迟)(汇)(回)(红)(利)(和)(利)(润)(;
"“蚂)(蚁)(搬)(家)(”式)(的)(美)(元)(走)(私)(;
"用)(银)(行)(卡)(境)(外)(大)(额)(提)(现)(;
"贸)(易)(信)(贷)(作)(假)(;
"资)(本)(金)(不)(到)(位)(,虚)(假)(出)(资)((中)(国)(允)(许)(分)(期)(出)(资)(、资)(金)(分)(批)(到)(位)(,实)(收)(资)(本)(可)(以)(暂)(时)(小)(于)(注)(册)(资)(本)()不)(投)(足)(外)(汇)(资)(金)(;
"以)(非)(正)(常)(高)(价)(收)(购)(外)(国)(企)(业)(等)(方)(式)(实)(现)(资)(本)(外)(逃)((但)(这)(类)(外)(逃)(需)(要)(在)(海)(外)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)(的)(基)(础)(上)(讨)(论)()等)(等)(。
03 资)(本)(外)(逃)(与)(“误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(”的)(关)(系)(
资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(形)(式)(和)(途)(径)(十)(分)(复)(杂)(,难)(以)(直)(接)(统)(计)(,但)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(“一)(般)(是)(对)(资)(金)(流)(出)((或)(债)(务)(增)(加)()不)(申)(报)(、少)(申)(报)(、或)(不)(实)(申)(报)(”。因)(而)(,资)(本)(外)(逃)(一)(般)(会)(导)(致)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(流)(出)((即)(带)(负)(号)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)()的)(增)(加)(。
我)(们)(刚)(才)(列)(举)(的)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(方)(式)(中)(,大)(部)(分)(外)(逃)(都)(会)(导)(致)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(增)(加)(。
以)(“蚂)(蚁)(搬)(家)(”式)(的)(美)(元)(走)(私)(为)(例)(。国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(的)(美)(元)(存)(款)(减)(少)(了)(500万)(美)(元)(。中)(国)(居)(民)(美)(元)(存)(款)((资)(产)()减)(少)(500万)(美)(元)(,根)(据)(复)(式)(簿)(记)(原)(则)(,应)(该)(在)(“资)(本)(与)(金)(融)(账)(户)(”下)(的)(“其)(他)(投)(资)(”项)(目)(中)(的)(资)(产)(方)(,记)(入)(带)(正)(号)(的)(一)(笔)(500万)(美)(元)(。但)(是)(,因)(为)(是)(夹)(带)(出)(境)(的)(美)(元)(,货)(币)(当)(局)(无)(法)(获)(知)(这)(笔)(被)(提)(走)(了)(的)(美)(元)(存)(款)(会)(变)(成)(何)(种)(其)(他)(形)(式)(的)(美)(元)(资)(产)(。因)(而)(无)(法)(在)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(的)(同)(一)(项)(目)(的)(资)(产)(方)(,记)(入)(带)(负)(号)(的)(同)(样)(数)(目)(的)(一)(笔)(美)(元)(。
这)(样)(,为)(了)(平)(衡)(这)(笔)(交)(易)(,误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)(下)(就)(会)(出)(现)(500万)(美)(元)(的)(流)(出)(。
因)(而)(,误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)(中)(的)(这)(500万)(美)(元)(的)(流)(出)((带)(负)(号)()是)(500万)(美)(元)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(、而)(不)(是)(统)(计)(误)(差)(的)(结)(果)(。但)(是)(,还)(应)(该)(看)(到)(,某)(些)(同)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(无)(关)(的)(原)(因)(也)(可)(能)(导)(致)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(流)(出)(的)(增)(加)(。比)(如)(说)(我)(高)(报)(出)(口)(,结)(果)(一)(定)(会)(导)(致)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(增)(加)(。但)(是)(高)(报)(出)(口)(不)(见)(得)(跟)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(有)(关)(,比)(如)(我)(要)(骗)(税)(,骗)(税)(不)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(,明)(明)(没)(出)(口)(那)(么)(多)(却)(说)(出)(口)(了)(那)(么)(多)(,他)(把)(税)(给)(骗)(来)(了)(,他)(造)(成)(了)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(流)(出)(的)(增)(加)(,但)(是)(它)(不)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。
又)(如)(旨)(在)(走)(私)(的)(低)(报)(进)(口)(,也)(造)(成)(了)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(,但)(走)(私)(不)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。
因)(而)(,只)(有)(在)(扣)(除)(了)(这)(些)(影)(响)(后)(,误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)((流)(出)()才)(能)(反)(映)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(规)(模)(。同)(时)(也)(应)(该)(看)(到)(,相)(当)(大)(部)(分)(的)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(并)(不)(会)(导)(致)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(流)(出)(规)(模)(的)(增)(加)(。所)(以)(光)(看)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(还)(不)(够)(,还)(有)(别)(的)(东)(西)(,你)(把)(这)(个)(东)(西)(加)(进)(去)(。
比)(如)(高)(报)(进)(口)(,低)(报)(出)(口)(,在)(金)(融)(交)(易)(中)(的)(某)(些)(误)(报)(,实)(际)(上)(都)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(,但)(是)(并)(不)(造)(成)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(增)(加)(。
以)(高)(报)(进)(口)(为)(例)(。我)(花)(10万)(美)(元)(在)(澳)(门)(买)(了)(钻)(石)(,我)(的)(美)(元)(存)(款)(减)(少)(10万)(。但)(同)(时)(你)(是)(进)(口)(了)(,因)(为)(你)(到)(国)(外)(买)(东)(西)(,你)(就)(填)(进)(口)(10万)(。可)(是)(实)(际)(上)(你)(并)(没)(花)(10万)(美)(元)(,你)(跟)(澳)(门)(老)(板)(商)(量)(好)(了)(,这)(块)(钻)(石)(只)(值)(1万)(美)(元)(,你)(给)(他)(1万)(5千)(美)(元)(,剩)(下)(的)(8万)(5千)(美)(元)(你)(拿)(走)(了)(,存)(进)(了)(你)(在)(海)(外)(的)(银)(行)(账)(户)(。
在)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(,进)(口)((借)(方)(、记)(负)(号)()记)(入)(10万)(美)(元)(,资)(本)(和)(金)(融)(账)(户)(上)(资)(产)(减)(少)(10万)(美)(元)((资)(产)(减)(少)(,记)(正)(号)()。两)(项)(相)(加)(不)(会)(产)(生)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(。因)(而)(,这)(8万)(5千)(美)(元)(的)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(是)(无)(法)(在)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)(中)(体)(现)(出)(来)(的)(。
总)(之)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(最)(近)(几)(年)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(显)(著)(增)(加)(反)(映)(了)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(加)(剧)(。
但)(在)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(和)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(之)(间)(不)(应)(该)(划)(等)(号)(。它)(们)(之)(间)(的)(关)(系)(可)(以)(用)(下)(面)(的)(等)(式)(表)(示)(:
资)(本)(外)(逃)(=(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(1-统)(计)(误)(差)(-出)(口)(高)(报)(-进)(口)(低)(报)(-某)(些)(金)(融)(交)(易)(误)(报)()+出)(口)(低)(报)(+进)(口)(高)(报)(+另)(一)(些)(金)(融)(交)(易)(误)(报)(。
总)(之)(,一)(部)(分)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(虽)(然)(导)(致)(了)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(增)(加)(,但)(同)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(没)(有)(关)(系)(;另)(一)(部)(分)(虽)(然)(没)(有)(导)(致)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(增)(加)(,但)(却)(是)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。
因)(而)(,我)(只)(能)(说)(,第)(一)(,误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(的)(增)(加)(并)(非)(主)(要)(是)(统)(计)(误)(差)(造)(成)(的)(;第)(二)(,我)(们)(相)(信)(,出)(口)(高)(报)(、进)(口)(低)(报)(现)(象)(应)(该)(没)(有)(发)(生)(非)(常)(大)(的)(趋)(势)(性)(变)(化)(;第)(三)(,出)(口)(高)(报)(、进)(口)(低)(报)(、出)(口)(低)(报)(、进)(口)(高)(报)(和)(不)(少)(金)(融)(交)(易)(误)(报)(是)(互)(相)(抵)(消)(的)(。
因)(而)(,国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)(大)(致)(反)(映)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(规)(模)(。事)(实)(上)(,资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(规)(模)(可)(能)(会)(大)(于)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)(所)(反)(映)(的)(规)(模)(。理)(想)(的)(情)(况)(是)(对)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(做)(直)(接)(的)(统)(计)(,或)(起)(码)(是)(参)(考)(中)(国)(贸)(易)(、金)(融)(交)(易)(对)(象)(国)(的)(统)(计)(推)(断)(中)(国)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(规)(模)(,但)(这)(种)(统)(计)(只)(能)(是)(由)(国)(家)(的)(统)(计)(机)(构)(来)(做)(的)(,我)(们)(做)(不)(了)(。
在)(国)(际)(文)(献)(上)(,把)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(作)(为)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(代)(表)(变)(量)(是)(非)(常)(普)(遍)(的)(。
从)(学)(术)(上)(讲)(,也)(不)(太)(需)(要)(担)(心)(什)(么)(。
04资)(本)(流)(出)(后)(并)(未)(转)(化)(成)(中)(国)(居)(民)(的)(海)(外)(资)(产)(
在)(前)(面)(我)(们)(已)(经)(提)(到)(作)(为)(“累)(积)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(同)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(形)(成)(缺)(口)(”另)(一)(部)(分)(的)(第)(二)(个)(缺)(口)(,即)(国)(际)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)((IIP)上)(扣)(除)(交)(易)(、各)(调)(整)(项)(目)(之)(后)(,年)(末)(头)(寸)(与)(年)(初)(头)(寸)(之)(间)(的)(差)(额)(,我)(们)(称)(之)(为)(为)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(2。
如)(果)(说)(第)(一)(个)(缺)(口)(可)(以)(在)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(查)(到)((即)(看)(看)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(项)(的)(大)(小)(和)(正)(负)(号)(),第)(二)(个)(缺)(口)(——误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(2,要)(查)(起)(来)(就)(比)(较)(麻)(烦)(。比)(如)(一)(个)(企)(业)(说)(要)(在)(美)(国)(投)(资)(1亿)(建)(厂)(,也)(确)(确)(实)(实)(登)(记)(、报)(了)(外)(管)(局)(,在)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(也)(记)(了)(这)(一)(账)(,但)(是)(资)(金)(出)(境)(后)(,最)(终)(是)(进)(了)(赌)(场)(还)(是)(投)(资)(了)(呢)(?
美)(国)(人)(不)(让)(我)(去)(,我)(怎)(么)(查)(?别)(的)(国)(家)(也)(存)(在)(这)(个)(问)(题)(,他)(们)(怎)(么)(处)(理)(呢)(?办)(法)(是)(通)(过)(查)(母)(公)(司)(的)(财)(务)(报)(表)(来)(推)(算)(,但)(如)(果)(母)(公)(司)(撒)(谎)(出)(假)(账)(就)(很)(难)(办)(了)(。
比)(如)(韩)(国)(的)(当)(局)(想)(到)(中)(国)(来)(看)(三)(星)(到)(底)(在)(中)(国)(投)(资)(了)(多)(少)(,这)(个)(比)(较)(困)(难)(,中)(国)(根)(本)(不)(让)(他)(来)(,他)(就)(需)(要)(看)(三)(星)(母)(公)(司)(的)(账)(。中)(国)(的)(问)(题)(是)(什)(么)(呢)(?国)(资)(委)(原)(来)(一)(位)(姓)(董)(的)(先)(生)(在)(两)(会)(期)(间)(说)(过)(,中)(国)(国)(企)(在)(海)(外)(资)(产)(从)(来)(没)(审)(计)(。
我)(们)(已)(经)(讨)(论)(了)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(形)(成)(同)(累)(积)(的)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(之)(间)(的)(第)(一)(个)(缺)(口)(,这)(个)(缺)(口)(可)(以)(根)(据)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(账)(户)(推)(断)(,我)(们)(把)(它)(称)(为)(误)(差)(遗)(漏)(1。
现)(在)(说)(的)(第)(二)(个)(缺)(口)(则)(要)(在)(国)(际)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)((IPP)上)(查)(。在)(扣)(除)(一)(系)(列)(由)(于)(统)(计)(口)(径)(变)(化)(、汇)(率)(变)(动)(和)(其)(他)(一)(些)(调)(整)(所)(造)(成)(的)(估)(值)(变)(化)(后)(,年)(末)(海)(外)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(与)(年)(初)(海)(外)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(之)(差)(之)(差)(理)(论)(上)(应)(该)(是)(0。如)(果)(有)(差)(额)(,则)(说)(明)(要)(么)(存)(在)(统)(计)(误)(差)(,要)(么)(流)(出)(国)(境)(的)(钱)(并)(未)(在)(美)(国)(投)(资)(建)(厂)(而)(是)(买)(豪)(宅)(去)(了)(。
总)(之)(,把)(资)(金)(合)(法)(转)(移)(到)(国)(外)(后)((因)(而)(在)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(查)(不)(出)(问)(题)(),再)(实)(现)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(情)(况)(,现)(在)(可)(能)(已)(经)(变)(得)(相)(当)(普)(遍)(了)(。比)(如)(我)(到)(海)(外)(并)(购)(一)(个)(企)(业)(,它)(值)(10亿)(美)(元)(,但)(我)(有)(意)(抬)(高)(海)(外)(并)(购)(的)(资)(产)(价)(格)(,说)(它)(价)(值)(20亿)(美)(元)(。20亿)(美)(元)(资)(金)(合)(法)(流)(出)(中)(国)(,但)(中)(国)(居)(民)(所)(拥)(有)(的)(海)(外)(资)(产)(实)(际)(只)(有)(10亿)(美)(元)(。另)(外)(10亿)(美)(元)(不)(知)(所)(终)(。
这)(是)(属)(于)(国)(际)(收)(支)(头)(寸)(表)(上)(的)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(,这)(种)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(在)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(上)(是)(体)(现)(不)(出)(来)(的)(,只)(能)(从)(海)(外)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)(中)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(2反)(映)(出)(来)(。
然)(而)(,看)(最)(近)(几)(年)(的)(中)(国)(海)(外)(投)(资)(头)(存)(表)(,我)(们)(还)(看)(不)(出)(有)(什)(么)(太)(大)(的)(异)(常)(。误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(2并)(没)(有)(明)(显)(的)(趋)(势)(性)(变)(化)(。虽)(然)(有)(些)(年)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(数)(额)(较)(大)(,但)(我)(们)(知)(道)(那)(是)(由)(于)(统)(计)(口)(径)(变)(化)(造)(成)(的)(。
2016年)(海)(外)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)(中)(的)(误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(2不)(但)(没)(有)(显)(示)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(,反)(而)(显)(示)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(出)(现)(了)(额)(外)(的)(增)(加)(。这)(种)(情)(况)(同)(我)(们)(的)(感)(觉)(存)(在)(较)(大)(差)(异)(。我)(们)(知)(道)(,在)(最)(近)(几)(年)(一)(些)(中)(国)(企)(业)(的)(海)(外)(并)(购)(活)(动)(十)(分)(活)(跃)(,其)(中)(的)(一)(些)(并)(购)(活)(动)(存)(在)(明)(显)(的)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(嫌)(疑)(。
一)(方)(面)(,误)(差)(与)(遗)(漏)(2没)(有)(显)(示)(明)(显)(的)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(趋)(势)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(,现)(实)(中)(相)(当)(多)(的)(资)(本)(在)(流)(到)(境)(外)(之)(后)(并)(未)(形)(成)(会)(为)(中)(国)(带)(来)(收)(入)(的)(中)(国)(海)(外)(资)(产)(。这)(个)(矛)(盾)(的)(存)(在)(使)(我)(们)(不)(得)(不)(怀)(疑)(中)(国)(的)(国)(际)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)(统)(计)(数)(字)(不)(可)(靠)(。考)(虑)(到)(海)(外)(资)(产)(审)(核)(的)(困)(难)(和)(时)(滞)(,出)(现)(这)(种)(情)(况)(应)(该)(是)(可)(能)(理)(解)(的)(。
四)(、中)(国)(的)(海)(外)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(现)(状)(
为)(了)(进)(一)(步)(说)(明)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(严)(重)(性)(,下)(面)(说)(说)(中)(国)(人)(在)(海)(外)(购)(买)(房)(地)(产)(的)(状)(况)(。
由)(于)(在)(官)(方)(统)(计)(中)(没)(有)(相)(关)(资)(料)(,我)(们)(只)(好)(依)(靠)(外)(国)(的)(非)(官)(方)(材)(料)(。当)(然)(,其)(可)(靠)(性)(是)(应)(该)(存)(疑)(的)(。
▲图)(11:中)(国)(人)(海)(外)(买)(房)(的)(地)(理)(分)(布)(。
图)(11是)(外)(国)(有)(关)(机)(构)(统)(计)(的)(中)(国)(人)(海)(外)(购)(买)(房)(的)(地)(理)(分)(布)(,蓝)(色)(是)(美)(国)(,占)(33.5%。按)(城)(市)(来)(看)(,在)(悉)(尼)(买)(的)(是)(最)(多)(的)(。
那)(是)(最)(适)(合)(华)(人)(居)(住)(的)(地)(方)(,在)(那)(里)(买)(房)(子)(没)(错)(。还)(有)(温)(哥)(华)(,这)(是)(我)(认)(为)(第)(二)(好)(的)(一)(个)(城)(市)(,美)(国)(好)(的)(城)(市)(我)(不)(大)(知)(道)(。这)(是)(一)(个)(地)(理)(的)(分)(布)(,这)(是)(前)(两)(年)(的)(数)(据)(。2017年)(中)(国)(购)(房)(者)(排)(名)(前)(10位)(的)(国)(家)(分)(别)(是)(:美)(国)(、澳)(大)(利)(亚)(、泰)(国)(、加)(拿)(大)(、英)(国)(、新)(西)(兰)(、德)(国)(、日)(本)(、马)(来)(西)(亚)(、西)(班)(牙)(。2009年)(到)(2015年)(中)(国)(人)(在)(美)(国)(购)(买)(了)(价)(值)(1千)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(房)(地)(产)(。据)(说)(,在)(美)(国)(购)(置)(的)(房)(地)(产)(占)(中)(国)(人)(海)(外)(房)(地)(产)(购)(置)(的)(1/3,这)(样)(推)(算)(,中)(国)(海)(外)(房)(地)(产)(购)(置)(的)(价)(值)(是)(4千)(亿)(美)(元)(左)(右)(。
▲图)(12:中)(国)(人)(海)(外)(购)(房)(与)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(比)(较)(。
跟)(其)(他)(的)(国)(家)(来)(比)(,中)(国)(人)(在)(海)(外)(买)(房)(子)(是)(在)(2013年)(以)(后)(急)(剧)(增)(长)(,图)(12中)(的)(红)(线)(显)(示)(了)(别)(的)(国)(家)(是)(往)(下)(走)(的)(,咱)(们)(上)(去)(了)(。
▲图)(13:大)(部)(分)(华)(人)(买)(的)(是)(独)(栋)(别)(墅)(,而)(且)(现)(金)(支)(付)(。
我)(看)(了)(一)(些)(照)(片)(,一)(群)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(人)(举)(着)(旗)(子)(“中)(国)(人)(不)(能)(在)(我)(们)(这)(儿)(买)(房)(子)(,你)(们)(把)(房)(价)(抬)(上)(去)(了)(。”所)(以)(有)(些)(反)(华)(情)(绪)(不)(是)(偶)(然)(的)(,你)(把)(人)(家)(物)(价)(和)(房)(价)(抬)(上)(去)(了)(。
在)(美)(国)(,大)(部)(分)(华)(人)(买)(的)(是)(独)(栋)(,其)(中)(有)(69%是)(用)(现)(金)(支)(付)(的)(。中)(国)(人)(有)(钱)(,首)(先)(独)(栋)(别)(墅)(,然)(后)(是)(联)(排)(别)(墅)(,然)(后)(是)(公)(寓)(,然)(后)(是)(商)(业)(地)(产)(。
▲图)(14:中)(国)(与)(其)(他)(国)(家)(在)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(的)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(比)(较)(。
上)(图)(是)(在)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(的)(房)(产)(投)(资)(,这)(里)(包)(括)(了)(美)(国)(、英)(国)(、中)(国)(、非)(中)(国)(的)(亚)(洲)(国)(家)(和)(其)(他)(的)(国)(家)(,黄)(色)(是)(我)(们)(的)(中)(国)(,中)(国)(跟)(英)(国)(比)(,英)(国)(是)(小)(小)(的)(一)(块)(。
▲图)(15:某)(中)(国)(人)(在)(2017年)(花)(4千)(万)(美)(元)(在)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(买)(的)(豪)(宅)(。
这)(是)(2017年)(9月)(份)(我)(从)(网)(上)(找)(的)(图)(片)(,中)(国)(人)(在)(2017年)(花)(了)(4千)(万)(美)(元)(在)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(买)(的)(,地)(点)(都)(有)(。
据)(外)(国)(金)(融)(机)(构)(JLLGlobalCapitalFlows估)(计)(,2016年)(中)(国)(人)(在)(全)(球)(购)(买)(不)(动)(产)(共)(计)(330亿)(美)(元)(,比)(2015年)(增)(加)(了)(53%。
2016年)(中)(国)(已)(经)(加)(强)(资)(本)(管)(制)(了)(,但)(仍)(然)(有)(越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(红)(旗)(飘)(扬)(在)(海)(外)(豪)(宅)(区)(中)(。
五)(、结)(语)(
还)(是)(需)(要)(强)(调)(,在)(过)(去)(三)(十)(多)(年)(的)(对)(外)(经)(济)(政)(策)(,中)(国)(取)(得)(了)(举)(世)(瞩)(目)(的)(成)(功)(,成)(绩)(是)(主)(要)(的)(。但)(也)(应)(该)(看)(到)(,由)(于)(历)(史)(的)(原)(因)(和)(政)(策)(调)(整)(的)(滞)(后)(,中)(国)(国)(际)(收)(支)(出)(现)(了)(一)(些)(不)(合)(理)(的)(地)(方)(。
近)(几)(年)(来)(出)(现)(的)(一)(个)(严)(重)(问)(题)(是)(:累)(积)(的)(经)(常)(项)(目)(顺)(差)(和)(海)(外)(净)(资)(产)(增)(长)(缺)(口)(巨)(大)(。对)(国)(际)(收)(支)(平)(衡)(表)(和)(国)(际)(投)(资)(头)(寸)(表)(上)(的)(两)(个)(缺)(口)(的)(分)(析)(显)(示)(,最)(近)(几)(年)(中)(国)(出)(现)(了)(比)(较)(严)(重)(的)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(。
自)(2016年)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(政)(府)(采)(取)(了)(一)(系)(列)(的)(措)(施)(抑)(制)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(,这)(种)(措)(施)(不)(但)(完)(全)(正)(确)(,而)(且)(是)(比)(较)(有)(效)(的)(。但)(是)(,资)(本)(外)(逃)(的)(问)(题)(还)(是)(有)(赖)(于)(中)(国)(的)(经)(济)(体)(制)(、金)(融)(体)(系)(和)(汇)(率)(体)(制)(改)(革)(的)(进)(一)(步)(深)(化)(来)(解)(决)(,不)(能)(头)(疼)(医)(头)(,脚)(疼)(医)(脚)(。
(本)(文)(为)(作)(者)(在)(2018年)(1月)(9日)(在)(深)(圳)(创)(新)(发)(展)(研)(究)(院)(所)(做)(的)(主)(题)(演)(讲)(,原)(发)(于)(“深)(圳)(创)(新)(发)(展)(研)(究)(院)(”微)(信)(公)(众)(号)(。)返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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